US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) & Mort. Apps (Jul.) CoreLogic's measure of house prices shows that, after stripping out the normal seasonal uplift, prices fell back in June. With the number of mortgage applications having declined in July and the... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QE3 still unlikely, at least until next year As the recent slowdown in economic growth and the rebound in the unemployment rate have come at a time when core inflation has risen rapidly, the Fed is unlikely to announce a third round of asset... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Revision to 2011 GDP forecast not due to debt ceiling deal We now expect the US economy to grow by just 2% this year, down from our previous forecast of 2.5%. Growth in 2012 is unlikely to be any better. This downward revision has nothing to do with the... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) July's ISM report was a shocker. The index is not flagging up another recession (at least not yet), but it suggests that the easing in GDP growth in the first half of the year is looking more and more... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Downgrade, default or both? Even if the politicians finally get their act together and agree a deficit reduction package, the resulting spending cuts may not be large enough to appease the credit rating agencies. As such, we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a US default mean for Asia? Policymakers across the region are rightly concerned about the potential consequences of a debt crisis in the US. We believe that the impact on Emerging Asia’s economies of a one or two notch... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending slowdown more abrupt than desired The soft patch in household spending may be more than just a blip, judging by the negative effect high energy prices and rising food prices are having on underlying retail sales. Although we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Default seemingly averted, but downgrade almost certain The latest noises from Washington suggest that politicians are close to reaching a compromise on a deal that will raise the debt ceiling ahead of Tuesday night, thereby preventing a debt default and a... 1st August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2) The poor economic climate, the double dip in house prices, the high number of foreclosures and tight credit conditions are all reasons why the homeownership rate will continue to fall. The flipside... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The disappointing 1.3% annualised rise in GDP in the second quarter and the downward revision in the first quarter suggests that economic growth for 2011 as a whole may fall short of our 2.5% forecast... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Essential points on the US debt crisis The US debt crisis will clearly dominate the agenda in the coming week, so it is worth summarising and expanding on the points we have made so far. In short, we continue to think that the Federal... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What would a US downgrade mean for the dollar? The dollar is initially likely to weaken further if the US loses its AAA credit rating. But we would still expect the US currency to rebound and end the year higher against the euro, sterling and yen. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Rising layoffs hint at more permanent slowdown The fact that the recent slowdown in jobs growth is mostly due to a rise in firings, rather than a fall in hiring, suggests that a rapid rebound in non-farm payroll employment is not imminent. Our... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (June.) The fall in durable goods orders in June confirms that the US economy is still struggling. But the numbers do not alter our estimate that annualised GDP growth in the second quarter was 2.3%, slightly... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are all commodities safe havens? The prices of gold and silver are obvious beneficiaries of the increasing worries about US government debt. But other commodities have also held up rather better than might have been expected... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The slight rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, to 59.5 in July from 57.6 in June, is a bit bizarre given that all the other measures of confidence have recently fallen... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
