US Economics Weekly Fed may yet need more policy tricks If the experiences of the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan are anything to go by, the Fed's pledge to keep rates low "at least through mid-2013" supports our new forecast that 10 year Treasury yields... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK on the ratings hit-list? The downgrade of US sovereign debt and speculation that France might be next has prompted renewed questions over the UK’s own credit standing. While a UK downgrade is not an imminent threat, it is... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The rise in retail sales values in July supports our view that there will be at least some rebound in economic growth in the third quarter and that another recession will, in all likelihood, be... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) Reflecting the growing signs of a global economic slowdown, Canada's merchandise exports fell in June. Even so, there are still good reasons to expect that third-quarter export growth will rebound... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in June is a stark reminder that the US cannot rely on a sustained boost from overseas to offset the weak domestic economy. Indeed, today's data open the door... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Financial turmoil may undermine economic recovery Should the global economy slow more sharply than even our distinctly bearish global forecasts, then we think equity prices in Canada could slide much further into red territory, as would commodity... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasury yields could fall even further The yield on 10-year US Treasuries temporarily plunged below 2.1% after Tuesday’s FOMC statement, before rebounding to around 2.25%. The last time the yield was so low was in early 2009 when the S&P... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's longer low rate pledge won't change much The Fed's pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low for much longer than previously won't significantly boost the real economy. Admittedly, the chances of QE3 have risen. But the rebound in core... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Financial market turbulence puts economic growth at risk The possible adverse effects from sharply falling equity prices and lower commodity prices on wealth and confidence have increased the risks that Canada's economic recovery might falter during the... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy stumbles in second quarter The sharp decline in May's GDP was a reflection of several unusually severe weather-related factors that disrupted energy and metal mining production. Although the negative effects on economic growth... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recession risks rising While we think that the chances of another recession are relatively low, the risks are certainly rising. More generally, the recent run of weak economic data and the sharp falls in equity prices... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Loss of US AAA rating shouldn't be a complete disaster The news that S&P finally pulled the trigger by cutting America's long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+ will surely rock the financial markets when they open on Monday. But any spike in Treasury... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Financial market moves could take 0.5% off GDP growth If the recent financial market moves are sustained, the net effect could be to reduce annualised GDP growth by around 0.5%. That would not tip the US into recession. But it supports our long-held view... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) July's employment report will go some way to reducing fears that the economy is slipping into another recession. But it highlights that the labour market has hardly recovered at all from the recession... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) The small increase in July's employment is not entirely surprising, considering the strong gains over the previous three months. More importantly, the details of the jobs report were fairly... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Overseas buyers won't save the housing market While in the long-term foreigners will increasingly want a slice of the American housing dream, over the next five years a rise in demand from overseas buyers will not be large enough to bring the... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
