US Economics Weekly Fed increasingly likely to launch Operation Twist On balance, we still think that the acceleration in core inflation will prevent the Fed from undertaking a third round of quantitative easing, even after the disappointing August payrolls figures. The... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) Even after allowing for the disruption of the strike by 45,000 Verizon workers last month, the stagnation in payroll employment is an ominous sign. The monthly gain in payrolls has now been below 100... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The marginal decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.6 in August, from 50.9, will further ease fears that the US economy is headed for a recession. At that level, the index is actually consistent... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank's downside risks are being realised It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, considering the slight contraction in second-quarter GDP and evidence... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) We are wary of reading too much into CoreLogic's fairly optimistic house price report for July, which showed that seasonally adjusted prices fell by just 0.1% m/m, when prices have yet to respond to... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2011) Despite the slight contraction in second-quarter GDP, by 0.4% at annualised rates, we estimate better growth is in store this quarter. A rebound from several unusually severe weather-related factors... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q2) With the economy weakening again, confidence falling and the labour market recovery faltering the rise in Case-Shiller house prices in the second quarter probably does not mark the end of the housing... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Halfway through a lost decade By the end of this year, it will be five years since the housing bubble burst. Given that the economy is likely to grow by no more than 2% this year, the US is only halfway through a lost decade. What... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Where's the economy headed? Most analysts now agree that the Canadian economy stumbled in the second quarter, but we think that the current quarter will be better. A rebound from several unusually severe weather-related factors... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke provides no clues on chances of QE3 In his speech at Jackson Hole, Chairman Ben Bernanke provided no real clues that the Fed is building up to more policy stimulus, such as QE3. In fact, he placed more onus on the politicians to help... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Braced for an outright fall in payrolls There is a real danger that the recent economic slowdown and financial market turmoil resulted in non-farm payroll employment falling outright in August, perhaps by around 25,000. That would be the... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Expectations of QE3 appear premature In his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to fulfil the markets’ hopes that he will pave the way for a third round of asset purchases (QE3). And even if he did... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jul.) July's durable goods orders data are not good as they might look. Nonetheless, they still suggest that business investment may accelerate in the third quarter. This supports our view that third... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slowdown becomes more sinister The economic slowdown appears to have developed into something more sustained and perhaps even more sinister. The recent plunge in equity prices, the possibility that jobs growth will flounder and a... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) The 0.7% m/m decline in new home sales in July built on the downward trend of the previous six months and highlights just how fragile the housing market remains five years after boom first turned to... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's rebound in retail sales was driven by sharply higher auto sales, thanks to earlier-than-normal and more generous price incentives. Since then, however, auto sales have fallen back and other... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
