US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) There is no hint in September's Employment Report that another recession is starting. Nevertheless, the 103,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month is still consistent with what would normally be... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's employment gain of 60,900 was a positive surprise, but the underlying details of the jobs report were less spectacular. Even so, it suggests that economic growth overall fared better in... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m decline in CoreLogic's measure of house prices in August may be the start of the renewed modest acceleration in price declines that we have been warning about. Prices may still stabilise... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) September's mortgage applications figures suggest that the decrease in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of this week won't significantly reduce mortgage demand. Nevertheless, the weak... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Households less willing and less able to buy Recent evidence showing that fewer Americans see owning a home as a central part of the American Dream and that fewer have a credit score high enough to make that dream a reality supports our long... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Commodity price plunge threatens economic recovery Renewed concerns over Europe's fiscal crisis and the struggling US economy have triggered a sharp decline in commodity prices. Since peaking in April this year, the Bank of Canada's composite... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 51.6 in September, from 50.6, demonstrates that the economy hasn't fallen off a cliff (at least not yet). But, at that level, the index is... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What does the euro-zone crisis mean for Canada? The fiscal crisis in the euro-zone is threatening to derail the global economic recovery. Although Canada is a very open economy with exports still accounting for 30% of GDP, shipments to the euro... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is structural unemployment a problem? One reason why wage growth may have not fallen much below 2% could be that the structural unemployment rate has risen by more than most estimates suggest. The extent of skills and location mismatching... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) July's GDP growth of 0.3% m/m provides further evidence that the economy rebounded this quarter, following temporary supply disruptions to industrial production in the previous quarter. This may be of... 1st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Businesses reluctant to boost headcounts Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of labour market indicators, suggests that for the second consecutive month the US economy as a whole failed to create any jobs in September. The... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook No real recovery in sight A persistent deficit in demand means that even when house prices finally find a floor, which could happen next year, they won't rebound rapidly. Sustained price gains are unlikely until 2014 at the... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Aug.) August's durable goods orders data suggest that firms did not pull the plug on their investment spending in the wake of the turmoil in the financial markets. This supports our view that annualised GDP... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, which was pretty much unchanged in September, shows that households are just as downbeat as they were last month. With equity prices hardly off... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) The 0.1% m/m rise in Case-Shiller 20-City house prices in July is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained and significant recovery in prices. We still expect prices to fall back a bit later this... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) In a month when both equity prices and confidence plunged and fears of another recession soared, the 2.3% m/m decline in new home sales in August could have been much worse. Nonetheless, in the... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
