US Employment Report Preview Don't blame small firms Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of indicators, suggests that non-farm payroll employment rose by around 75,000 in October. That would be broadly similar to the increases seen in... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The acceleration in third-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 1.3%, would seem to make a mockery of fears that emerged early in the quarter that the economy was entering a recession... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still looking for ways to boost policy at the zero bound Only five weeks after the Fed announced its plan to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings and to reinvest principal payments from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings back... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) Even after the 5.7% m/m rebound in new home sales to 313,000 annualised in September, from 296,000 the month before, purchases are still close to a record low and only a quarter of what they were... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep.) September's durable goods report is broadly consistent with our estimate that third-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% annualised, in part due to a sharp pick up in business investment (data due... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) The latest report on house prices from Case-Shiller suggest that the housing market has been a little bit softer than previously thought. In seasonally adjusted terms, the Case-Shiller 20-City house... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to cut policy rate next year The Bank of Canada now believes there is no need to remove any monetary policy stimulus anytime soon. Even this more dovish position, however, rests on the assumption that the global economy will... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The respectable 0.5% m/m gain in retail sales in August suggests that most households shrugged off the recent volatility in financial markets, despite evidence showing that confidence had fallen. In... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's monetary policy framework under the spotlight The Federal Reserve's framework for setting and communicating monetary policy came under the spotlight last week. It is understandable given the persistently high level of unemployment that economists... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are leading indicators pointing to trouble ahead? With concerns over Europe's fiscal and financial mess dominating the headlines, domestic investors largely ignored the news last week that Statistics Canada's composite leading index suggests that... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) The stronger than expected increase in core CPI inflation, from 1.9% to 2.2% in September, is mostly due to higher clothing prices, reflecting the past run-up in cotton prices. Although core CPI... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Faster Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained Our latest calculations suggest that GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% annualised in the third quarter, more than double the rate in the second. The rebound in spending on motor vehicles as the Japanese... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The modest fall in existing home sales in September shows that the housing market is struggling to gain any traction in this poor economic climate. In fact, it is hard to see home sales rising at all... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Policy outlook depends more on external events We have absolutely no doubt that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. Were it not for the recent declines in long-term interest rates and depreciation of the Canadian... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The 15% m/m rise in housing starts in September comes hot on the heels of the rise in the NAHB homebuilders' index to a 17-month high in October and suggests that housing may finally be helping the... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Growing risk of another recession We expect growth to be very low or negative in most advanced economies next year. The euro-zone is already heading for recession, and if its public debt and banking crisis is not contained, the rest... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
