Global Markets Update Labour's share of income and the outlook for US equities Labour’s share of income in the US nonfarm business sector hit its lowest level since at least 1947 in Q3 according to data released last Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (See Chart 1... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shadow inventory to keep supply high for foreseeable future Estimates of the shadow inventory vary, but by our calculations more than four million homes are waiting in the wings and will eventually add to the supply of properties for sale. That will prevent a... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia-US trade agreement could ease Dutch Disease News that the Free Trade Agreement between Colombia and the US has finally been signed is clearly positive. Not only should the pact boost trade between the two nations, but the elimination of tariffs... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks batten down the European hatches The Fed's Senior Loan Officer survey shows that in the three months to October banks took steps to protect themselves from the European debt crisis. Nevertheless, the survey is still consistent with a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The acceleration in the rate at which the CoreLogic house price index is falling reflects the slowing in the pace of job creation and wider economic growth earlier this year. Prices may well fall... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Narrowing in the trade deficit probably temporary The employment figures took a lot of the gloss off the news earlier in the week that monthly GDP growth accelerated back in August. It is clear that even if energy and autos production were enjoying a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can the Fed help revive housing? The Fed appears increasingly more determined to help the ailing housing market. Another round of asset purchases focusing on mortgage-backed securities, perhaps in the first half of next year, would... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) October's Employment Report has pluses and minuses but, on balance, it is positive. Non-farm payrolls increased by a modest 80,000 last month, down from a revised 158,000 gain in September. 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's employment figures cruelly dashed any optimism that may have built up after the surprisingly good performance in September. Employment fell by 54,000 last month, reversing most of the 60,900... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode The Fed opted to stay on the sidelines today. Most probably because FOMC members want more time to judge how effective the Operation Twist programme announced at the last meeting in September has been... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3) The modest increase in the rental vacancy rate in the third quarter does little to alter our view that rental yields will soon rise above 5.5%, comfortably beating the yields available on Treasuries... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) The fact that mortgage applications for home purchase fell again in October, despite 30-year fixed mortgage rates touching fresh lows, underlines our long held position that the demand for housing... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) There was little in October's ISM manufacturing survey to suggest that the US economy has moved any closer towards another recession. But equally, there were no real signs that economic growth is... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 0.3% m/m increase in real GDP in August was solely due to the continuing rebound in energy production, which is still recovering from the disruptions in the spring caused by bad weather and... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Faster GDP growth won't be sustained The acceleration in third-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 1.3%, seemed to make a mockery of fears that emerged early in the quarter that the economy was entering a recession. Nevertheless... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New forecast consensus still too high Although most private-sector forecasters have revised down their GDP forecasts for Canada, they still seem too high to us. The latest surveys show that consensus expectations for real GDP growth over... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
