Canada Economics Weekly Business confidence key to investment outlook After expanding very strongly in the first half of this year, we now estimate that business investment grew at a tepid pace in the third quarter. Nevertheless, there are good reasons to expect... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Few market consequences if the super committee fails Even if the super committee fails to recommend ways to reduce the budget deficit by Wednesday's deadline, as there will be no government shutdown, no debt default and no credit rating downgrade, we... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) Although the official measure of core inflation, which dipped from 2.2% to 2.1% in October, might stay slightly above the Bank of Canada's target of 2% in the near term, this is not a big concern... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q3) The further fall in the share of households behind on their mortgage in the third quarter is another piece of good news for the housing market. But the delinquency rate remains high and the large... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Housing starts held broadly steady in October, leaving the modest upward trend of recent months intact. But the bigger picture is that starts are on course to total just 600,000 or so in 2011 as a... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy avoids recession this year Third-quarter GDP growth appears to have picked up to about 3.0% annualised, in part due to the rebound in industrial production, which has fully recovered from the temporary supply disruptions and... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Oct.) Headline CPI inflation is now past its peak, falling to 3.5% in October, down from a high of 3.9% in September. It should drop to about 3.0% by the end of this year and plummet to nearer 2.0% by March... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) The stronger than expected increase in September's manufacturing sales bodes well for monthly GDP growth, which we estimate at 0.2% m/m. As such, we have revised up third-quarter GDP growth, from 2.5%... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) It is becoming quite clear that the economy has a decent amount of momentum that should help it cope, at least for now, with any adverse effects emanating from Europe. Annualised GDP growth in the... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The growth rate of money has levelled out over the past couple of months, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fussing over federal finances is misplaced We agree that the federal government will take longer than previously thought to return to budgetary balance but, really, so what? Considering that the primary federal budget is already balanced and... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Disturbing decline in demand for loans Prime Minister Noda’s announcement on Friday that Japan would join negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement is a step in the right direction. Not only would the pact open up... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's international trade data confirm that net exports were a big positive for third-quarter economic growth, which we now estimate at 2.5% annualised. Although there are good reasons to not... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The narrowing in the trade deficit in September suggests that annualised third-quarter GDP growth may be revised up from 2.5% to perhaps 2.8%. But a slowdown in overseas activity means the external... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Why we differ from the consensus outlook We have below-consensus forecasts for Canadian interest rates and economic growth next year. The main reasons for the difference relates to our bearish views on rest-of-world economic growth... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Price falls starting to gather pace again The latest evidence suggests that the stabilisation in house prices seen over the summer is giving way to further price falls. In September, our seasonally adjusted measure of the CoreLogic index fell... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
