Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2011) Canada's better than estimated third-quarter GDP, which grew by 3.5% annualised, was due to one-time stronger external trade figures. Final domestic demand, however, grew at a slower pace than we had... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts - the fall-out from an EMU break-up We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of a change to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up. The new numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are four main... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The jump in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month high of 56.0 in November, from 40.9 in October, is an encouraging sign given the growing concerns in the euro-zone. 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q3) House prices were still falling in the third quarter and we don’t think that they’ve stabilised in this quarter either. Even when prices do reach their trough, which could be next year, a continued... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada's next move will be to cut policy rate Although the economy most likely rebounded in third quarter, by an estimated 2.9% annualised, it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. The... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) The 1.3% m/m rise in new home sales in October was not especially encouraging given that it came at the expense of a 3.3% downward revision to the previous month’s numbers. More generally, new home... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained Our calculations suggest that GDP rebounded by almost 3% annualised in the third quarter thanks to a sizable positive contribution from net exports. Unfortunately, that strong contribution from the... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Would US banks survive a euro collapse The mounting fiscal crisis in the euro-zone obviously represents the biggest downside to our forecast that the US economy will continue to expand next year, albeit by a pretty modest 1.5%. In a worst... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q3) and payroll employment (Sep.) Further growth in non-financial business profits is one good reason to expect continued growth in business investment and perhaps payroll employment. That said, the uncertainty surrounding what impact... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Euro mess is by far the biggest risk to US outlook There is an incredible amount of uncertainty surrounding what impact a euro-zone recession and the potential break up of the single currency could have on the US economy and financial markets. The... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Better economy starts to help young workers Our employment model suggests that the recent improvement in economic activity is consistent with non-farm payrolls increasing by around 100,000 in November, up from October's 80,000 gain. It is also... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & Personal Spending (Oct.) October's weaker than expected personal spending and durable goods orders data suggest that annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth may be closer to 2.5% rather than the 3.0% that previously looked... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September's jump in retail sales is further evidence that most households were undaunted by financial market volatility and declines in equity prices last quarter. Despite the drop in consumer... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Super committee failure not a disaster The apparent failure of the congressional deficit reduction super committee to reach any agreement is not the disaster it is being portrayed as by some commentators. As we argued in our most recent US... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Pick up in GDP growth won't be sustained in 2012 The latest incoming data suggest that US economic growth is accelerating, even as growth in Asia slows and Europe falls back into recession. Unfortunately, there are many reasons to fear that GDP... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) The modest rise in existing home sales in October may reflect the recent improvements in economic activity and the labour market. But a sustained and significant recovery in home sales is just not on... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
