Canada Economics Weekly Housing could take a while to thaw The local real estate board data for January shows that the housing market is still struggling, and we probably can’t blame it all on the weather. Meanwhile, the large fall in the unemployment rate... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Jobs market health still in question ahead of Jan payrolls This week's slew of soft labour market data releases – including a further slump in job openings, higher weekly jobless claims, and a rebound in Challenger job cut announcements – has resurfaced... 6th February 2026 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Feb 2026) The robust pick-up in the current conditions index hints that the labour market, while still weak is improving, while inflation expectations seem to be heading in the right direction. Admittedly the... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan 2026) The 0.3%-pt drop back in the unemployment rate to 6.5% last month came on the back of a large fall in the labour force and in spite of a 25,000 decline in employment. We expect this trend to continue... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Will the build-to-rent boom turn to bust? The boom in build-to-rent (BtR) housing starts to record highs, despite the immigration crackdown and accompanying fall in rents on new leases, reflects the significant expansion of government support... 5th February 2026 · 15 mins read
US Economics Update AI already making a big contribution to productivity growth The further gains in GDP in the ICT industries in the third quarter, despite another fall in employment, is a clear sign to us that AI is boosting productivity. While other factors help to explain the... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral stockpiles are a symptom of fracturing The stockpiling of critical minerals is an age-old response to a modern-day problem posed by China’s dominance over the supply of rare earths and other raw materials. That said, “Project Vault” will... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS challenges view that the jobs market has stabilised The large downside surprise in December job openings may concern Fed officials and suggest they were premature to remove language in last month’s policy statement emphasising elevated downside risks... 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran talks, Qatar’s LNG push, Saudi opens up The US and Iran enter negotiations tomorrow, but relations between the two are fragile and there's a high risk that talks break down, which could result in fresh US military strikes on Iran. Elsewhere... 5th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Struggling software sector won’t burst this bubble We don't think the falls suffered by software stocks in recent days are indicative of waning enthusiasm for AI. We think investors will continue to judge that the benefits accruing from AI will... 4th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market implications of US-India rapprochement Warming US-India relations, centred around an agreement for India to purchase less Russian oil, risks tightening the global oil market. However, we aren’t convinced that India will curtail imports... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jan 2026) While not as eye-catching as last month’s rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year high, the ISM services index remained at a healthy 53.8 in January, hinting at the potential for some more... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Insufficient defence spending plans won’t lift GDP growth The newly-planned rise in defence expenditure marks a much-needed shift from the Trudeau era but is still too small to sufficiently lift spending above 2% of GDP or generate significant multiplier... 4th February 2026 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Jan. 2026) The large 8% rise in home purchase mortgage applications in January lifted them to their highest level in three years and is consistent with existing home sales rising to around 4.5m annualised over... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Could SPR demand absorb Venezuelan oil imports? The potential for Venezuelan oil to be used, albeit indirectly, to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the coming years gives us even more confidence in our view that a boost to US imports... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Rate cutter’s remorse not a threat to most bond markets Australian bonds have been battered lately, and its currency boosted, by the prospect of the country’s central bank reversing course on monetary easing. But even though it’s now followed through with... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
