Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still likely to cut rates In its policy statement today the Bank of Canada maintained both its key policy interest at 1% and its wait-and-see policy approach. Although the Bank judges that weaker external factors are offset by... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) While the growth rate of the narrower M1 money aggregate has started to slow a little, M2 growth has remained broadly unchanged and the growth rate of our reconstructed measure of the broadest M3... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Resurgent housing investment cannot be sustained The recent strength in housing activity indicates that housing investment has made a resurgence and is still contributing strongly to GDP growth. Against a bleak global economic backdrop, this... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US economic outlook remains modest at best The recent run of stronger economic data has led to speculation that the US economy could be poised for a good 2012 after all. This is a remarkable turnaround from August last year when speculation... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November's modest rebound in exports reflected more strongly the recovery in Canadian auto production and better US industrial activity. While exports rebounded, imports fell, with the trade deficit... 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The widening in the trade deficit in November to a 10-month high is perhaps the first real sign that the crisis in Europe and the more general global slowdown is starting to take its toll on the US. 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Activity showing first signs of improvement The magnitude of the decline in existing home sales since the start of the housing market crash has been revised up significantly, but sales now appear to be rebounding as banks begin to lend more... 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s disappointing retail sales figures suggest it was not a happy holiday season for retailers. For the fourth quarter as a whole, our calculations now suggest that real consumption increased... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus likely before second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday next week, we still think that further policy stimulus is around the corner and expect its... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus likely before second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday next week, we still think that further policy stimulus is around the corner and expect its... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Clash between Fed and Congress to limit action on housing Policymakers just can’t decide what to do with housing. While the Fed thinks that government funds should be used to support housing, Congress appears to believe that housing should be used to support... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) Weekly data show that the bulk of the gain in mortgage applications for home purchase in the two months to early-December has now been eroded. Nevertheless, looser credit conditions should see... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy likely grew by 2% in fourth quarter Following the rebound in third-quarter GDP, with growth of 3.5% annualised, we estimate that fourth-quarter GDP grew by a more modest 2.0%. Stronger growth in consumption and, to a lesser extent... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook & Senior Loan Officer Surveys (Q4) The latest quarterly business surveys indicate that, while businesses expect sales growth to slow this year, investment and employment should continue to expand. As such, we remain cautiously... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US stock market at risk from the earnings cycle The fourth quarter US corporate earnings season kicks off today. The reporting season is unlikely to be especially upbeat as the profits cycle is now peaking. Looking ahead, the growth rate of profits... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
