Global Economics Update Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensus As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Robo-signing settlement will not be a game-changer Whether or not President Obama uses tonight’s State of the Union Address to announce a final resolution to the robo-signing fiasco, it would appear that an agreement is close at hand. The good news is... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to slow again in first quarter It appears that GDP growth accelerated to around 2.4% annualised in the fourth quarter, up from 1.8% in the third. But we suspect that, despite the apparent strength in some of the incoming data, it... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November's modest 0.2% m/m increase in retail sales masks the real good news, which was that sales volumes grew by an even stronger 0.5% m/m. For four months in a row retail volumes have increased... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is now the time to buy? If house prices and rents evolve as we expect then, over a normal holding period, it will be better to own rather than rent the average home. This should go some way to reviving Americans’ appetite... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada's outlook rests on weaker footing We think the Bank of Canada's latest projections for economic growth this year and next are too high, mainly because they rely more heavily on sustained growth in household expenditures, particularly... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Industrial revival won’t last Recent signs that manufacturing activity is going from strength to strength have prompted some hopes that industry will save the economy from another year of pretty weak growth. The problem is that... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) There’s no denying that home sales are still very low and will remain low for a few years. But after having risen in each of the last three months, including a 5.0% m/m gain in December, it is clear... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) December's drop in consumer price inflation, to 2.3% from 2.9%, reflects a trend that is likely to continue this year. As further declines in underlying inflation coincide with slower economic growth... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Early signs that mortgage credit conditions are loosening Credit conditions in the US have stopped tightening and there are signs that they are now loosening. We expect this to continue, supporting home sales and putting a floor under house prices. But any... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The rebound in November's manufacturing volumes, which rose by 1.7% m/m, more than offset the previous month's decline and points to monthly GDP growth of around 0.3% m/m, which is broadly consistent... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices were unchanged in December and the annual CPI inflation rate declined to 3.0%, from 3.4%. Favourable base effects will generate an even sharper drop in that annual inflation rate over... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) The fall in housing starts in December was driven by a steep decline in the often volatile multi-family sector, while starts of single-family homes actually rose slightly. In any case, December’s fall... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed prepares to step into brave new world The Fed has already announced that it will be making some major changes to its monetary policy framework at the two-day FOMC meeting that concludes next Wednesday (25th January). Those changes will... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Dec) The strong rebound in manufacturing output at the end of last year is encouraging, as is the further decline in producer price inflation. 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
