Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November's disappointing 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP was due entirely to a large drop in energy output. While we expect this important sector to rebound down the road, we now estimate that fourth... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.) There are still no signs that house prices are on the verge of turning around, with the Case-Shiller measure falling for the seventh month in a row in November. But things should be different in six... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Euro crisis beginning to affect domestic credit The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer survey revealed that the ongoing crisis in the euro-zone is beginning to have a more marked impact on domestic credit, with foreign-owned banks tightening lending... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Housing will soon help the economy, but not by much With the downturn in the housing market drawing to a close, housing should soon start to boost economic growth. But as housing now makes up only a small share of the economy, the sector is unlikely to... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Solid consumption growth sustained this quarter The latest retail sales data indicate that fourth-quarter real consumption grew by over 3% annualised and we think there is a good chance that this strength might be sustained this quarter as well... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed may still unleash QE3 soon The Fed's new interest rate projections ended up having only a modest impact on market expectations last week. Indeed, the impact was smaller than we might have expected based on the pledge in the... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The acceleration in GDP growth to 2.8% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 1.8% in the third, suggests that the recovery is gathering momentum. However, the much bigger than expected positive... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Was the Fed statement really so positive for commodities? The prices of most commodities, like those other riskier assets, have been rising after Wednesday’s Fed statement was widely interpreted as a “pledge” to keep US interest rates on hold until the end... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries to benefit from more than just Fed policy The relatively subdued response of US Treasuries to the outcome of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting underlines the fact that while monetary policy should provide a firm anchor for long-term yields over the... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The fledgling recovery in housing market activity has yet to encompass the new homes market, where sales fell in December. The bottom line is that new home sales are unlikely to rise significantly... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Benchmark revision adds to the uncertainty After incorporating the “known knowns”, our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 150,000 in January, which would be less than December’s 200,000 gain. The “known unknowns” of the... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (Nov.) November's non-farm payroll survey data, which showed little change in average weekly wages and only a modest increase in employment of 12,261, was somewhat discouraging at first glance. Nonetheless... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Dec.) December's durable goods orders figures are encouraging, suggesting that after stagnating in the fourth quarter of last year, business investment started to pick up again right at the end of that... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's anticipates that rates are on hold until late 2014 The publication today of the first set of interest rate projections by the FOMC heralded a historic change in the way that the Fed conducts monetary policy, but had little practical impact on market... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A deepening liquidity trap would be bad news for equities Writing in today’s Financial Times, Gavyn Davies argues that “nominal equity returns may be held back by low inflation but in real terms they should outperform government bonds, even if the liquidity... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Obama retunes his HARP President Obama’s latest proposal to help more households refinance to a lower mortgage rate is another policy that tinkers at the margins rather than striking at the heart of the problems that are... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
