Canada Economics Update Housing juggernaut on uneven footing The latest building permits and housing starts data indicate that new housing construction is not slowing down much. Although this is good for economic activity this quarter, we are still concerned... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus How would the US cope with a euro break-up? The US is not that exposed to the crisis in Europe. Despite the prospect of a very deep euro-zone recession arising from some form of euro break-up, we estimate that US GDP growth will be just 0.5... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) The latest weakness of mortgage applications for home purchase may suggest that the recent improvement in home sales is not built on solid foundations. While strict credit scoring and widespread... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar rally unlikely to persist The Canadian dollar has attracted plenty of attention again as it moved back to parity with the US dollar, reflecting increased optimism about prospects for the global economy. We suspect, however... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update REO to rental programme could be the best housing fix so far Among the myriad of programmes rolled out to help the housing market, the proposal to sell the government’s stock of real estate owned homes to rental investors could just be the most effective yet. 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to call the end of the bull market in Treasuries Reduced fears of a meltdown in the euro-zone and the recent run of better economic data – culminating in January’s unequivocally strong US payrolls report – have led to speculation that the long bull... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Federal austerity not needed Recent remarks by government officials suggest that the upcoming Federal budget, expected in March, will deliver spending cuts that are deeper and sooner than those already outlined in last year's... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Federal debt burden set to keep on climbing Last week both the Fed Chairman and the non-partisan CBO issued a stark warning about the fiscal path that America is heading down. Unless corrective action is taken, by the end of this decade Federal... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) January's Employment Report was unequivocally strong and points to a rapidly improving labour market. Non-farm payrolls increased by 243,000, a nine-month high, up from 203,000 in December. That was... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's dismal employment gain and rise in the unemployment rate are further signs that the economy ended last year on a weaker footing. Given the headwinds confronting Canada's economy, we doubt... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) Signs of a modest housing market recovery are noticeable everywhere but in the house price data. Today’s CoreLogic release shows that prices were still falling at a reasonable clip in the final month... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy stumbles in the fourth quarter November's surprising 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP was caused by a sharp drop in energy output. All things considered, we now figure that fourth-quarter GDP grew by 1.5% annualised, below our previous... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The continued steady turnaround in the industrial sector, as suggested by the rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 54.1 in January, from 53.1, appears to be due to both the resilience of the... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Increasing intangible investment – implications for equity prices If corporate expenditure on intangible assets is treated as investment, rather than as an expense, the US stock market appears much less overvalued than traditional barometers of “fair” value suggest... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in January to 61.1, from 64.8 in December, doesn't sit well with the overall improvement in the economic data. Consumers remain a... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) The share of Americans who are willing and able to own their own home is still falling. The flipside is more households in the rented sector and fewer properties lacking tenants. This is helping to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read