Global Markets Update Has the US equity risk premium reached a peak? Part of the justification provided in some quarters for the recent rise in the US stock market is that equities are attractively valued relative to bonds. We do not dispute this fact – the equity risk... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4) The decline in mortgage delinquencies in the fourth quarter is another positive development for the housing market, but the foreclosure pipeline remains full to bursting. If the robo-signing... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) Despite the relatively strong 1.2% m/m increase in manufacturing volumes in December, we doubt that wholesale and retail trade were anywhere near as strong and suspect that overall monthly GDP growth... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) January’s housing starts data support our view that homebuilders are shaking off the shackles of the last five years and are beginning to contribute to GDP growth. That said, the housing sector is... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) & Empire State (Feb.) Ignore the fact that industrial production was unchanged in January, well below the consensus forecast of a 0.7% m/m gain, the manufacturing sector is on a tear. Manufacturing output increased by 0.7%... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Multi-family starts will outperform again this year The latest rise in the NAHB homebuilder activity index suggests that housing starts began the year on the front foot. We think that growing investment demand will prompt homebuilders to increase... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Even though our measure of M3 grew by a healthy 5.6% in the year to January, there are some signs that bank lending is starting to grow more slowly. The danger is that a sovereign debt default in the... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s retail sales data are better than they look and provide yet more evidence that the US economy is improving. 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Prices to drop sharply on euro break-up fears Most commodity prices made a strong start to 2012, helped by increasing hopes that the US will lead a strong recovery in the global economy, declining fears of a “hard landing” in China, and faith... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What explains the modest gain in new house prices? The price of detached new houses rose by just 2.5% in 2011, slightly below the average annual increase of around 4.0% over the last ten years, which is not that much higher than average annual... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Participation rate will keep on falling It has been suggested that the reported decline in the unemployment rate to a near three-year low of 8.3% in January, from a high of 10.0% in February 2009, is not nearly as good as it looks because... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December's 5.1% m/m increase in export volumes reflects the recovery in Canadian auto production and, more generally, improvement in US economic activity. This surprising strength means that net... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to a six-month high in December shouldn’t lead to a revision of fourth-quarter GDP growth, but it does highlight the deteriorating outlook for exports. 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Slightly easier credit supporting sales The rise in home sales in each of the three months to December is the clearest sign yet that a modest housing market recovery is underway. The fact that mortgage approvals are still subdued, however... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Robo-signing settlement doesn't change the big picture News that the $25bn robo-signing settlement has been finalised is good for those homeowners who will benefit from the principal reductions and refinancing schemes that form part of the deal. But the... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Are America’s fiscal prospects even worse than Europe’s? At first glance, America's fiscal prospects are worse than those of the peripheral euro-zone countries, although the US does have a few key advantages that mean it should continue to enjoy very low... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
