US Economics Weekly Fed still looking at ways to add to the policy mix The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the Fed was considering a new programme of bond buying, albeit with the twist that it could use large-scale reverse repo operations to offset the... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) January's 2.3% m/m decline in exports, mostly due to lower energy and metal prices, trimmed Canada's trade surplus to C$2.1bn from C$2.9bn. More importantly, export volumes, after increasing strongly... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February's surprising 2,800 decline in employment, which continued a run of disappointingly weak jobs reports, is at odds with the better economic growth figures. Although we expect some improvement... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) February's Employment Report adds to the evidence that the labour market has turned a corner. Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in February, slightly above the consensus forecast of 210,000... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada maintains cautious approach The Bank of Canada's policy statement, which pledged to keep interest rates at 1.00%, retained its cautious wait-and-see approach, despite the improvement in economic data. Given the strength of the... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic Prices & Mortgage Apps. (Jan./Feb.) We’ve been expecting house prices to stop falling soon and January’s CoreLogic index provided the first tentative sign that this is happening. But the continued weakness of mortgage applications... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economic growth likely to slow further in 2012 Canada's economy grew by 2.5% in 2011, down from the 3.2% rebound in the year before. Both households and businesses contributed 1.5 percentage points to overall growth last year. While the government... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Sustained fall in inflation underway Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing is healing Lingering constraints on demand and the overhang of foreclosures mean that the healing of the housing market will be a long and gradual process, but it does at least appear to be underway. Home sales... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed waiting to see which way the recovery breaks Next Tuesday's FOMC meeting (13th March) is expected to be a quiet affair, with Fed officials waiting to see whether the recent improvement evident in the labour market develops into a more vigorous... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Banking sector getting stronger Much attention has focused on the surge in European banking stocks since the ECB first announced its LTRO bank lending scheme. But over the same period, US banking stocks have also risen by 20%. And... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2011) Despite the slowdown in fourth-quarter GDP growth, to 1.8% annualised from an upward revised 4.2% in the third quarter, the details on household spending and business investment were more encouraging... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manu. & Personal Income/Spending (Feb./Jan.) Today’s batch of data casts doubt over hopes that the economy has finally embarked on a strong and sustained recovery. When taken together, the figures support our view that annualised GDP growth in... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions still improving The labour market appears to have strengthened markedly over the last few months, with non-farm payrolls increasing by a 10-month high of 243,000 in January and the unemployment rate falling to a... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus expected in the second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will maintain its policy interest rate at 1% next week, with the same decision now likely at the next meeting in April too, we still think that the... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Despite surging gasoline prices, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence shot up to a 12-month high of 70.8 in February, from 61.5 last month. The latest increase presumably reflects the... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
