US Chart Pack Inflation still set to fall The recent rise in gasoline prices won’t prevent inflation from falling, but it will limit just how far and fast it drops. What’s more, evidence of a strengthening in underlying price pressures... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) The slight fall in housing starts in February leaves the recent upward trend broadly intact. Housing starts should rise further later this year on the back of continued employment growth and an... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates won’t extinguish the housing recovery There are two reasons why a rise in mortgage rates won’t threaten the housing recovery. First, mortgage rates can rise only so far when tighter monetary policy is still years away. Second, even if... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Biggest downside risk still growing According to fourth-quarter financial flows and balance sheet data, household borrowing continues to expand at a pretty rapid pace. Even though the debt-to-income ratio may have fallen slightly in the... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Current account deficit no concern The widening in the current account deficit to more than 3% of GDP at the end of last year is no big concern. The US has been running deficits of more than 3% of GDP for most of the past dozen years... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big is the Iran premium in oil prices? Estimates of the amount that the tensions between the West and Iran have added to global oil prices range from $5 to $25 per barrel (pb). Our best guess is towards the bottom of this range – perhaps... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) Although the disappointing 1.1% m/m drop in January's manufacturing sales volumes bodes poorly for GDP, the recent surge in auto sales at least points to much stronger retail and wholesale trade... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Feb.) Higher gasoline prices will limit the decline in CPI inflation over the next few months, while the growth rate of manufacturing output is likely to slow to a more sustainable pace. 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Make no mistake; the housing recovery is well underway Concerns that a housing market recovery is not possible when prices are falling misses the crucial point that prices lag changes in demand and supply by up to six months. Make no mistake; a housing... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Tentative signs that prices are stabilising The latest data brought tentative signs that the stabilisation in house prices that we have been expecting may now be happening. In January, our seasonally adjusted measure of the CoreLogic index rose... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US economy to pull further ahead of euro-zone The divergence between the performances of the US and the euro-zone economies looks set to widen even further than we had previously expected this year and next. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for bond and stock markets We have revised our projections for the major Western government bond and stock markets, and for emerging markets, partly to reflect changes to our US economic forecasts and partly due to reduced... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed remains cautious The statement released after today's FOMC meeting included a slightly more upbeat assessment of the economic outlook, but the Fed can hardly be accused of acting as a cheerleader for the recovery... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The recent improvement in retail sales should gain further traction in the coming months, as the stronger gains in employment translate into faster income and consumption growth. 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDP growth now likely to reach 2% this year The recent sustained run of stronger economic data, particularly on the labour market, has persuaded us to raise our GDP growth forecast to 2.0% this year, from 1.5%. We are also nudging up our 2013... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Vehicle sales driving consumption This year's surprising strength in new auto sales bodes well for first-quarter consumption, which could have risen by as much as 5% annualised. Even if sales faltered a little towards the end of the... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
