US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate will decline more gradually Our econometric model, which takes into account a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment rose by around 200,000 in March. That would be the fourth monthly increase of 200,000 or... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit crunch has passed in US but not in the euro-zone Credit growth and lending conditions are improving gradually in the US but are still extremely weak in the euro-zone. This divergence looks likely to continue or widen in the coming months... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities shouldn't bank on more support from the Fed The positive reaction in commodity markets to Fed Chairman Bernanke's seemingly dovish speech on Monday has already begun to fade, which makes sense to us. What's more, any additional bond buying is... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Feb.) The 2.2% m/m increase in February's durable goods orders was well below the 3.0% consensus forecast and our own even higher 5.5% forecast, principally because of an inexplicably small 6.0% rebound in... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Better export growth will help bolster GDP growth We expect GDP growth to slow after the first quarter, as consumption growth fades and housing investment begins to decline. Only a pick-up in business investment growth and a positive contribution... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The slight fall in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 70.2 in March, from a 12-month high of 71.6, only reversed a small portion of the gain in February. We are not too worried... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.) The stabilisation in Case-Shiller house prices in January adds to other evidence that the housing market is on the mend. We expect that 2012 will go down in history as the year that the most severe... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stronger GDP growth expected this quarter Our calculations suggest that Canada's economy, after growing by 1.8% annualised in the fourth quarter of last year, will grow this quarter by 2.5%. The main reason for this pick-up in economic growth... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Do rising equity prices offset higher gas prices? Households are currently being subjected to a number of diverse and often opposing economic forces, but most will cancel each other out and we still anticipate consumption growth of just above 2% this... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The further fall in new home sales in February was probably driven by the unwinding of the boost to sales activity from the recent unseasonably warm weather. We expect continued employment growth and... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) February's rise in the official core inflation figure, to 2.3% from 2.1%, will possibly elicit talk of higher interest rates to come. Considering the increasing slack in labour markets and moderate... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Future monetary tightening and the prospects for Treasuries There have been seven major monetary policy tightening cycles in the US since the early 1970s. If these are a useful guide, the ten year Treasury yield will start to rise well before the first... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus US will continue to outperform There are reasons to believe that over the next two years the US will perform better than the other major economies. This would build on the trend of the last four years that has seen a disappointing... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s 0.5% m/m increase in retail sales, which was mainly due to sharply higher new vehicle sales, was much weaker than the 2.0% increase we had estimated. The decline in spending elsewhere, which... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The 0.9% m/m fall in existing home sales in February suggests that the boost from the good weather has started to fade. But strong demand from investors and a growing willingness of banks to lend... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The annual growth rates of all the monetary aggregates remained strong in February, with our measure of the broadest M3 aggregate increasing by 6.0% over the past year. With the euro-zone crisis... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
