US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The disappointingly modest 120,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March, which was exactly half the 240,000 gain month before, mainly reflects some payback from the unseasonably warm winter. Between... 6th April 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch US natural gas prices to rebound despite supply boom US natural gas prices have fallen to around $2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) due to soaring supply and the mild winter in North America. But they now look far too low relative to... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The 82,300 increase in employment in March, which was the biggest monthly gain in three-and-a-half years, goes a long way towards making up for the disappointing run of jobs reports going back to the... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Are mortgage lending standards easing? There’s no doubt that mortgage lending standards remain tight. But there are some tentative signs that banks might be becoming a bit more willing to lend. This is a crucial development that will... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Could a surge in dividends boost the economy? If other firms follow Apple's lead in paying an annual dividend then, given the amount of stockpiled cash that the corporate sector is currently hoarding, the resulting boost to personal income and... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Coming hot on the heels of the slightly more encouraging mortgage applications numbers released this morning, the small rise in the CoreLogic measure of house prices in February is another sign that... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) It’s too early to conclude that March’s increase in mortgage applications for home purchase is the start of an upward trend. But the sharp rise in average loan size certainly seems consistent with an... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Inflation still poised to decline Although gasoline prices have risen over the last few months, the year-on-year rate of gasoline inflation is still set to fall over the next few months. Given that other energy and non-energy... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack A month of two halves for Treasuries The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by more than 20bp in March. The catalysts for a significant sell-off in the first half of the month were another encouraging employment report, reassuring results... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufact'ng (Mar.) & Const'n Spending (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index in March leaves it consistent with annualised GDP growth of around 2.5%, which is in line with our estimate for the first quarter. 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fiscal austerity will dampen GDP growth this year Fiscal austerity measures across various levels of government will dampen economic growth this year. While the federal government's 2012 budget will have a relatively minor impact, the fiscal... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to fret about higher Treasury yields Even a larger and longer-lasting rise in 10-year Treasury yields than the one seen in recent weeks is unlikely to derail the economic recovery. Just as tight credit conditions meant that the previous... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus What will bring oil prices down? The price of Brent has remained close to $125 per barrel despite verbal intervention from Saudi Arabia and the threat of an early release of official stocks led by the US. We are therefore nudging up... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) January's 0.1% m/m increase in monthly GDP and upward revision to the final month's growth of last year supports our view that Canada's economy grew more strongly this quarter. Our calculations... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Principal reductions useful, but no silver bullet Principal reductions on mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would herald a policy initiative that directly addresses one of the biggest problems facing the housing market. It won’t solve the... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget austerity will constrain economic growth Despite an already modest deficit, the new federal budget includes plans to forge ahead with austerity measures that are likely to restrain economic growth. We doubt that the economy will perform as... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
