Global Markets Update Turn in the US profit cycle looms US corporate profits have grown significantly in the nearly three years since the end of the last recession. Admittedly, there are structural reasons why the share of profits in corporate output may... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weather won't keep US natural gas prices down for long The bulk of the decline in the price of US natural gas, from $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) early in 2010 to around $3 at the start of 2012, can be explained by the surge in supply. But... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) & Empire State Index (Apr.) Households appear to be contributing more to the economic recovery just at a time when the industrial recovery seems to be running out of stream. Some of the strength in consumption in the first... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The annual growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates slowed only marginally in March, with the growth rate of our measure of M3 easing from 6.1% to a still very healthy 5.8% last month. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's exporters are not lagging behind Canada's export and overseas investment performances over the last two decades or so indicate in our view that Canadian businesses/exporters have actually done fairly well. This broader take on 'trade... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The hidden fiscal boost The rebound in tax receipts means that, for the first time in three years, State and local governments might soon be in a position to boost their spending. Over the next couple of years, this may... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lumber prices don’t undermine case for construction recovery The lack of a significant rise in lumber prices does not suggest that the nascent improvement in housing starts will soon fizzle out. The volume of lumber being transported by railroad has a much... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Despite the 0.3% m/m increase in consumer prices in March, favourable base effects still pushed the annual rate of CPI inflation down to a 12-month low of 2.7%, from 2.9%. The rate should fall to... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) Despite February's 2.9% m/m decline in export volumes, the past growth in monthly exports still indicate that first-quarter net exports managed to contribute positively to GDP growth. We estimate the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) & PPI (Mar.) In response to the unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit in February, we have raised our estimate for first-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 2.0%. Meanwhile, we doubt that that the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada unlikely to raise rates anytime soon We think the Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise interest rates from the current 1% anytime soon. Not only does the marginal improvement in current economic conditions partially reflect temporary... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Borrowers making larger loan applications The $20,000 increase in the average loan size that mortgage applicants are seeking from lenders over the past three months may be an early sign that buyer confidence is improving. This should provide... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets heading for a repeat of 2011? The recent slump in global equities is prompting comparisons with 2011, when the prices of riskier assets also fell away after a confident start. Our view is that the US economy will be more resilient... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets heading for a repeat of 2011? The recent slump in global equities is prompting comparisons with 2011, when the prices of riskier assets also fell away after a confident start. Our view is that the US economy will be more resilient... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Buoyant commodity prices net positive for economy The upswing in commodity prices since the global economic slump over three years ago has been an important part of Canada's recent economic performance. This is highlighted by the positive... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery remains solid The US economy still appears to be headed in the right direction. We admit that economic growth isn't going to be spectacular this year, probably around 2.0%. Nevertheless, there would appear to be... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
