US Employment Report Preview Not another 2010 or 2011 We don’t think that the 120,000 increase in nonfarm payroll employment in March, which was half February’s rise, is the start of a sustained period of substantially weaker jobs growth. Our econometric... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed content to play waiting game The statement issued today after the two-day FOMC meeting indicates that the majority of Fed officials are content to wait and see how the US recovery develops. In particular, the statement reaffirmed... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Mar.) The unexpectedly big 4.2% m/m slump in durable goods orders in March isn't quite as bad as it looks, particularly as the details of the report suggest that there is now some upside risk to our... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The trivial fall in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 69.2 in April, from 69.5 March, was broadly in line with the already reported modest decline in the University of Michigan... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook US recovery, European recession We expect world GDP to grow by around 3% both this year and next. The US economy is set to recover steadily but the euro-zone recession will deepen, causing the sovereign debt crisis to flare up again... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Feb/Mar) The small rise in the Case-Shiller index in February supports our view that house prices are either very close to, or already through, their trough. But with new home sales still very subdued in March... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.2% m/m decline in February's retail sales values was disappointing but, given the news yesterday that wholesale sales increased by a much bigger than expected 1.6% m/m in that month, it still... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market stalls The modest 120,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in March, half the pace of job creation in February, prompted fears that the recovery could be faltering again. The rise in weekly initial... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada hoping for the best The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report paints a fairly upbeat picture for GDP growth this year and next. We think that this is unlikely to materialise, however, mainly because of the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Resilience of consumption growth may not last The likely acceleration in consumption growth in the first quarter is encouraging, especially at a time when the recovery in the industrial sector appears to be running out of steam. But while we do... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) March's sharp drop in headline consumer price inflation, to 1.9% from 2.6%, and the decline in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 1.9% from 2.3%, supports our view that the Bank of Canada is... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) March’s decline in existing home sales probably reflects the normal month by month volatility rather than renewed underlying weakness. The increase in households’ confidence in the outlook for the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to signal a move in either direction We doubt that the FOMC's upcoming two-day meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 25th April, will throw up any major changes. The minutes from the last meeting revealed little appetite among Fed... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada signals possible rate increases The Bank of Canada's policy statement, which pledged to keep interest rates at 1.0% for now, signalled that some small increases might soon be needed. This hawkish change from last month’s fairly... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The soft industrial production and housing starts figures for March add to the evidence that economic growth may have eased towards the end of the first quarter. 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) The UK has now experienced about four years of below-average productivity growth. We remain sceptical that this means that productivity growth has been permanently damaged. So we still think that a... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
