Canada Chart Pack Housing market continues to raise eyebrows The surprisingly strong surge in housing starts, to 244,900 annualised in April, is yet another sign that Canada's housing market is dangerously overheating. Admittedly, starts have only recovered to... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Plenty more home sales pending March’s further fall in home sales is a potentially worrying sign that the improvement in housing market activity is already petering out. But we are encouraged by the fact that pending home sales are... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) House prices rose in March and based on leading indicators, the short-term trend could strengthen further in the coming months. Over the year as a whole, however, house prices are more likely to... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth set to rise this quarter before fall back We estimate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualised from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. In addition to weaker growth in consumption and business investment in the first... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Demand for credit strengthening There are still fears of another sharp summer slowdown in economic growth, particularly after another disappointing gain in payrolls in April, but we think that the recovery will hold up better this... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth steady, US-Europe divergence persists Business surveys for April suggest the global economy began the second quarter at a steady but subdued growth rate of around 3%. They also suggest the divergence between moderate growth in the US and... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The very modest 115,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April will raise fears that the recovery is fading fast, just like it did at this time last year. We still think the true health of the labour... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The further rise in mortgage applications for home purchase is an encouraging sign that mortgage-dependent buyers are beginning to contribute to the improvement in home sales. But with credit... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manu. Index (Apr.) & Const'n Spending (Mar.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in April will ease concerns that the softer tone of the recent incoming economic data marked the start of another midyear slump in growth. 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q1) Supply conditions in the rental sector are tightening as the proportion of households renting reached a 15 year high in Q1. We think that the rental rate may rise slightly further yet, with the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The unexpected 0.2% m/m decline in February's monthly real GDP means that overall first-quarter GDP growth was probably no more than 2.0% annualised, whereas we had previously hoped for a gain of at... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed no nearer QE3...or higher rates The upward revisions to the Fed’s forecasts for core inflation published after last week’s policy meeting have largely been overlooked. But they actually play a crucial role in explaining why the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market cooling The Bank of Canada's recent heavy hint that interest rates may need to rise soon already looks badly timed. Little more than a week after the release of its latest Monetary Policy Report, which... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) First-quarter GDP growth came in at a disappointing 2.2% annualised, but the undershoot compared with the 2.5% consensus forecast was largely explained by an unexpected second consecutive quarterly... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Two leading indicators that reinforce price stabilisation picture The short histories of US house price expectations and asking price data mean that their ability to give an early steer on house price movements is relatively untested. Nevertheless, the fact that... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
