US Economics Weekly US economy should shrug off Greek exit All things considered, we don't expect Greece's eventual exit from the euro-zone to have any devastating impact on the US economy, even if the exit from the single currency is compounded by a Greek... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) April's surprising rise in the official 'core' inflation figure, which rose to 2.1% from 1.9% in March, partially reflects higher motor vehicle prices and does not suggest higher inflation ahead. More... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Foreclosure procedures offer clues to State-level outlook Differences in foreclosure procedures will be one determinant of when State-level housing markets improve. While the national housing market is in the early stages of a recovery, many of the judicial... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1) The good news is that the number of homeowners who are delinquent on their mortgage continued to fall in the first quarter. But that didn’t change the big picture that the large overhang of homeowners... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) March's 1.9% m/m increase in manufacturing sales volumes supports our view that monthly GDP, after declining by 0.2% m/m in February, rebounded by at least 0.3% m/m the next month. Until we see the... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) The 2.6% m/m rise in housing starts in April, alongside the big upward revisions to earlier data, supports our view that housing is in recovery mode. Driven in particular by the multi-family sector... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Presidential election may make QE3 even less likely A look back at history throws cold water over suggestions that the Fed tends to alter its behaviour ahead of Presidential elections. Nonetheless, with political hostility towards the Fed currently... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Apr.) Falling energy prices and favourable base effectspushed the annual CPI inflation rate down to a 12-month low of 2.3% in April, from 2.7%. Headline CPI inflation will fall below 2.0% over the next few... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update When will equities triumph over bonds again? US government bonds have fared much better than the US stock market since the beginning of this century. However, this trend is probably nearing an end. Admittedly, we do not expect equities to start... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Canada's outperformance may not last much longer Canada's stronger economic performance over the last few years is largely explained by its stable banking sector, the continued boom in its housing market and, to a much lesser extent, buoyant... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate expectations still too high The recent hiking of market interest rate forecasts, which was prompted by the Bank of Canada's more hawkish policy statement a few weeks ago, looks increasingly like an over-reaction. While rate... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling gasoline prices to support the recovery At least some of the recent easing in economic growth is due to the surge in gasoline prices earlier in the year. The most recent fall in gasoline prices should therefore prevent a more sustained or... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's surprising 58,200 gain in employment, which follows an almost equally impressive gain in the prior month (see chart), is welcomed news given the unusually weak figures that preceded it... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The sharp rise in imports in March is unlikely to be a sign that domestic demand has strengthened markedly. Nonetheless, imports are still likely to grow at a faster pace than exports this year... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) March's trade figures show an encouraging pick-up in both export and import volumes. With first-quarter growth in exports outpacing imports, we calculate that net trade contributed positively to GDP... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
