US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q1) In seasonally-adjusted terms, the Case-Shiller national house price index reported its strongest quarterly gain for two-and-a-half years. And with the economic recovery now on firmer ground, we see no... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch The long pause in policy interest rate just getting started While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1.00% next week, we think the Bank's upcoming policy statement, due out on Tuesday, will be more downbeat... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's bark worse than bite The rapid appreciation of the Canadian dollar since 2003 has certainly added to the challenges confronting the manufacturing sector. Much more important to this sector's struggle, however, has been... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The sizeable fiscal cliff We are still assuming that Congress will agree to extend the bulk of the tax cuts due to expire at the end of the year and to postpone most of the automatic spending cuts set to take place early next... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Markit's new PMI looks to be a valuable addition Markit’s new US manufacturing PMI appears to be better at capturing changes in GDP growth and manufacturing output than the ISM survey. That said, the very limited history means the real test is... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The annual growth rate of our re-constructed measure of M3 eased slightly to 5.2% y/y in April, from 5.9% but, with M1 and M2 still growing at much faster rates, we see no cause for alarm. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rise back to underlying trend Our econometric model suggests that May is the month when payrolls growth snapped back in line with the underlying trend. We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in May, up... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Apr.) While the 0.2% m/m increase in durable goods orders in April was in line with the consensus forecast, we would still label this a mildly disappointing report, since that gain was largely driven by an... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery standing firm So far there is little evidence that the recent softening in economic growth is developing into a more significant slowdown. The leading index and a weighted average of the two ISM activity indices... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) April’s 3.3% m/m rise in new home sales adds to the impression that homebuilders are starting to feel some of the benefits of improving housing market activity. Moreover, the rising proportion of new... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s strong 0.4% m/m gain in retail sales volumes bodes well for monthly GDP growth, helping to offset the negative impact from the weaker wholesale trade report released last week. Overall, we... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) The rise in existing home sales in April suggests that the modest recovery in housing market activity is back on track. The improvement is being driven almost entirely by cash buyers and investors... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus The housing recovery will last the course The sheer extent of undervaluation in the housing market, combined with the prospect of a sustained if modest economic and labour market improvement, should ensure that the current, gradual housing... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Treasuries the real deal? The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fleetingly dipped below 1.7% last week – its lowest level on record. We do not expect to witness a major sell-off any time soon – our end-2012 and end-2013 forecasts... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Labour's share of income to continue trending lower Labour's share of income has been on a downward structural trend since the 1980s, resulting from the decline in labour's bargaining power, globalisation and technological progress. Not only will that... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would a Greek euro exit mean for Canada? Although Greece's departure from the euro now seems almost inevitable, that should have only moderate consequences for well capitalised Canadian banks and the Canadian economy, even if the exit from... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
