US Housing Market Outlook House prices will rise this year Driven by strong investor demand, the modest recovery in housing market activity will not only continue into the second half of 2012 and beyond, it will spread to encompass house prices, which will... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Storm clouds gathering After a slight pick-up in the second quarter, we expect GDP growth to drop back below 2% annualised in the second half of this year, as the strength in housing investment fades and consumption slows... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) The 4.8% m/m fall in housing starts in May could be an early sign that the recent slowdown in the wider economy has taken some of the wind out of the sails of the improvement in housing market... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation has further to fall Headline CPI inflation dropped below the Fed's 2% target rate in May for the first time in 16 months and, with gasoline prices still falling, it looks like it could be down to around 1.5% within... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tumbling commodity prices darken outlook The faltering global economy has sent commodity prices tumbling and it seems unlikely they will rebound. Prices might rally initially in response to any further support provided by global central... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown not that much of an exaggeration Chairman Ben Bernanke recently appeared to play down the need for more action from the Fed, arguing that the extent of the US slowdown may have been "exaggerated". Looking at the pattern of the... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Prod'n (May) & Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The 0.4% m/m drop in manufacturing output in May and the slump in consumer confidence to a nine-month low are further illustrations of how rapidly the economy has lost momentumafter a very strong... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Apr.) April's surprising 0.8% m/m decline in the value of manufacturing sales, mainly due to lower volumes, points to another month of modest growth in GDP, possibly as low as 0.1%m/m. We originally assumed... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update A stronger outlook for house prices? The improvement in housing market activity has not only put a floor under house prices, but, in recent months, has driven them higher. With the big caveat that much depends on how severe the effects... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Current Account (Q1) Plummeting energy prices and favourable base effects drove headline CPI inflation below the Fed's 2.0% target in May, for the first time in 16 months. The annual rate actually fell to 1.7%, from 2.3%... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (May) The stalling in underlying retail sales growth in May suggests that the recent easing in jobs growth has started to curtail spending. We doubt, however, that the economic recovery has come to a... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed probably won't act as soon as next week The intensifying crisis in the euro-zone coupled with signs that the US economic recovery is faltering have led to speculation that the Fed will provide more monetary stimulus at the next two-day FOMC... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA’s estimates consistent with lower grain prices The United States Department for Agriculture’s (USDA) latest estimates for 2012/13 indicate a further marginal increase in both the global corn and soybean end stocks. This is consistent with our... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall further as euro-zone crisis deepens Headline inflation has dropped this year in most major economies and is likely to come down further as global growth falters, the euro-zone crisis deepens and commodity prices continue to fall. We... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would trigger QE3? Unless the economy loses a lot more momentum or the eventual financial contagion from the crisis in Europe is much greater than we expect, the Fed is unlikely to launch a third round of asset... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing construction likely to keep on giving The latest permit data indicate that condo developments continue to be the main source of strength in new housing construction, which has showed little sign of slowing. Given the lengthy construction... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
