US Employment Report Preview Past the worst? Our econometric model suggests that at least some of the recent softening in jobs growth was reversed in June, with non-farm payroll employment rising by around 125,000. That would be almost twice as... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (May) The stagnation in durable goods orders in recent months is a clear sign that, in response to the easing in global demand, America’s industrial recovery is running out of steam. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Plunging gasoline prices to fuel real consumption A further fall in gasoline prices to close to $3 a gallon, from a recent peak of $4, will provide a near-term kick to real consumption growth just at a time when it appears to be fading fast. But a... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The fourth consecutive monthly fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, to 62.0 in June from 64.4 in May, is a clear indication that the turmoil in equity prices remains a drag on... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to fall further The recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar is likely to continue this year and next. Our reasons for thinking so are the prospects of further declines in commodity prices and lower expectations... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.) The recent strong upwards momentum in house prices may not be sustained for much longer. Nevertheless, 2012 should mark not only the end of the US house price downturn, but the first year since 2006... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) Despite the unusually high price of new homes relative to their pre-owned equivalents, new home sales rose strongly in May. The implication appears to be that Americans are becoming more willing to... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household borrowing near full throttle Household borrowing has accelerated over the last few quarters, a trend that might continue to push the debt-to-income ratio higher. However, the faltering global economic recovery and drop back in... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still reluctant to launch QE3 The Fed appears to be edging closer to launching a third round of asset purchases (QE3), but it will not pull the trigger unless the economy loses more momentum and/or the threat to US financial... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) May's slightly larger than expected decline in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 1.8% from 2.1%, provides even greater leeway for the Bank of Canada to refrain from raising interest rates... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Drop back in core inflation likely to be gradual We now expect the annual core CPI inflation rate to decline only modestly this year, from 2.3% in May to slightly below 2.0% by year-end, before falling more markedly next year to 1.5% by end 2013. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Tighter mortgage rules likely to curb housing activity The finance department's surprise announcement earlier today to tighten the screw further on mortgage insurance rules starting in early July is prudent action in our view, given the elevated risks... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) The slight fall in existing home sales in May suggests that, with economic activity indicators weakening, the recovery in housing market demand has lost a little bit of momentum. Nevertheless, if we... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) April's disappointing 0.8% m/m drop in retail sales volumes would be disconcerting for monthly GDP growth if it were not for the surprisingly strong growth in wholesale trade data released earlier... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed twists again, but no QE3 yet In the end, the Fed opted to extend its Maturity Extension Programme (aka Operation Twist) for another six months, but there was no new large-scale asset purchase programme (QE3). Nevertheless, the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
