US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 80,000 rise in payroll employment in June provides further evidence that the US economy has lost momentum since the turn of the year, but that the recovery is not grinding to a complete halt. 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Europe a greater drag than China The slowdown in Europe has been a greater drag on the US economy than the softening in China. With the euro-zone on the cusp of a deep recession, this trend will only become more pronounced. The... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun. 12) While another fall in mortgage rates saw remortgaging applications surge higher in June as a whole, applications for home purchase remained stuck in the doldrums. Nevertheless, this isn’t preventing a... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices threaten investment prospects The faltering global economy has driven commodity prices lower, with Canadian oil prices down sharply from levels earlier this year. Although oil prices have risen somewhat over the past week, we... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sluggish corporate earnings to weigh on the US stock market The Q2 earnings season kicks off in the US next week. The story that is likely to emerge is one of slower profit growth. And looking further ahead, the news is likely to get worse. This is a key... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the ISM manufacturing index overplaying the slowdown? There are a couple of reasons why the plunge in the ISM manufacturing index in June may be overplaying the extent of the recent slowdown. Even so, the clearer signs that events in Europe and China are... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the markets right to shrug off the US ISM? The markets have taken the alarmingly weak US ISM data in their stride, seemingly banking on European policymakers and the US Fed to turn things around quickly. This muted reaction looks complacent to... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The fall in June’s ISM manufacturing index to below 50 for the first time since the last recession is the surest sign yet that the US is catching the slowdown already underway in Europe and China. But... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) May’s 0.4% m/m rise in our seasonally-adjusted measure of CoreLogic house prices marks the fifth successive month in which prices have increased. While the recent strong pace of monthly house price... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Moderate consumption growth may not last We calculate that, after falling by 0.8% m/m in April, retail sales volumes rebounded strongly in May. In addition, recent employment gains and lower gasoline prices likely supported retail sales in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) April's 0.3% m/m increase in GDP, thanks to a rebound in the volatile mining sector, was slightly stronger than consensus expectations (0.2% m/m) and supports our view that Canada's economy grew... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What effect will Iran sanctions have on oil prices? We maintain our view that the imminent tightening of Western sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have anywhere near as large an impact on global oil prices as many had feared. Demand is weakening and... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Food inflation to continue to fall despite corn price spike The recent jump in US corn prices has led to fears of an upturn in world food inflation. However, agricultural prices in general are still much lower than they were a year ago, and even the surge in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No reason to fear rise in US net external liabilities The sharp deterioration in America’s net international investment position last year could be alarming as this is a key indicator of future financial crises. But a closer inspection shows that the US... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is something amiss with seasonally adjusted house prices? Problems with the seasonal adjustment process, caused by the unusually high share of distressed sales in recent years, may be giving a misleading impression of the strength of house prices over the... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (Apr.) April's payroll survey data, which showed a strong increase in average weekly earnings and a modest gain in employment, point to solid second-quarter wages and salaries growth of around 5.0%... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
