US Housing Market Update Is negative equity a positive for the housing recovery? The reluctance of homeowners who are in negative equity to sell their home and realise a loss is one explanation for the sharp fall in the visible inventory over the past few years. Nevertheless... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) & Producer Prices (Jun.) The latest confidence data suggest that although consumers remain cautious, at least they aren't panicking. Elsewhere, the modest 0.1% m/m increase in producer prices in June is another illustration... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth likely slowed in Q2 Canada's economy likely grew by a more modest 1.7% in the second quarter, down from the 1.9% pace recorded in each of the two quarters before that. We had expected GDP growth of 2.2% annualised, but... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Bernanke to take centre stage This week's congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be closely watched for hints that the FOMC is any closer to launching a third round of large-scale asset purchases. Even though... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices are on a streak but may slow in second half Annualised growth on the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic house price indices over the past three months stands at 6.2% and 9% respectively. However, price growth may moderate in the second half of the year... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons not to panic about US grain prices Fears of the “worst drought in the US in 25 years” have led to a spike in US grain prices and understandably added to concerns about another global food inflation shock. However, there are at least... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) May's 0.6% m/m decline in export volumes together with downward revisions to previous months indicate that second-quarter exports declined, a significantly weaker result than our earlier assumption... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The modest narrowing in the trade deficit to $48.7bn in May, from $50.6bn, was mainly due to a price-related drop in the cost of imported oil, so there is no reason to believe that second-quarter real... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Interest rates likely to remain low for years The Bank of Canada policy announcement next week, which almost surely will maintain the policy interest rate at 1%, is likely to acknowledge that the more modest outlook for the global economy has... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Unemployment a cyclical rather than structural problem Two data releases this morning offered only limited support to the claim made yesterday by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker that the economy is already close to full employment. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Booming housing construction still on uneven footing The recent strength in housing starts, mostly multiples, reflects strong new housing sales from over a year ago. However, home sales are now softening and the recent tightening of mortgage insurance... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small business confidence waning The fairly sharp decline in the NFIB's latest small business optimism index suggests that it isn't just larger export-orientated firms that have seen a drop off in demand over the past few months. 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook & Senior Loan Officer Surveys (2012Q2) The latest quarterly business surveys indicate that, while significantly fewer businesses expect future sales growth to pick-up over the next 12 months, they remain steadfast in their plans to... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to fear another recession Although it is very clear that the US economy has lost a lot of momentum, there are no real indications that it will soon come to a complete standstill or even go into reverse. The latest ISM surveys... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Corporate cash piles could boost economic growth Canadian businesses are flush with cash. Even if just a small fraction of the cash held by the non-financial sector were used to boost dividends, we estimate it would significantly increase personal... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) June's modest 7,300 gain in employment was close to consensus expectations (+5,000) and supports our view that the economy grew more strongly in the second quarter, to 2.2% annualised from 1.9% in the... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
