US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Housing starts fell slightly in July, but the forward-looking indicators rose once again. The upshot is that homebuilding will continue to support the wider economic recovery. 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jun.) The surprising 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales in June was largely explained by ongoing volatility at petroleum refineries. For this same reason manufacturing sales volumes increased more... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Are household's turning cautious? Consumption growth has slowed in the first half of this year, a sign perhaps that households are becoming circumspect, in the face of a global economic downturn and the rising likelihood of a hard... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul. 12) The further decline in CPI inflation to a 20-month low of 1.4% in July, from 1.7%, gives the Fed even more flexibility to act next month, if it feels the economy needs a little more stimulus to drive... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Jul.) The sharp 0.8% m/m rebound in retail sales in July was the first increase in four months, but only reversed the declines in the previous two months. So although consumers might have loosened their... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in Canadian dollar won't last We doubt that the recent rally in the Canadian dollar to above parity against its US counterpart will last. Admittedly, the safe haven status of the currency may continue to support it in the near... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Are student loans the next bubble? The near-quadrupling in student loan debt over the past decade to $900bn, or 6% of GDP, is a concern, but we don't believe it represents a serious threat to the US financial system or that it will... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drought a small, but unhelpful, drain on growth The loss of corn and soybean crops caused by the drought may reduce annual GDP growth by less than 0.1%. The drought is therefore not a disaster for the wider economy. But it doesn’t help when the... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul. 12) July's surprisingly large 30,400 decline in employment, following two months of paltry gains, is a bad start to the second half of this year. Admittedly, the underlying details were better than the... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices are poised to fall US corn production estimates published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) were revised down sharply. However, this was largely anticipated by the market, and was mainly... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing investment cycle may have peaked The surge in housing starts, driven entirely by hi-rise condominium construction despite already high inventory, is now glaring evidence of overbuilding. Anecdotal evidence, meanwhile, points to... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun. 12) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit in June suggests that the easing in global demand and the strengthening in the dollar have yet to take a major toll on the US economy. But we doubt this can... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) June's 0.3% m/m gain in export volumes together with upward revisions to previous months indicate that second-quarter exports increased, a somewhat stronger outcome than the slight decline we had... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2 12) The sharp slowdown in jobs growth seems to have fed through rapidly to the mortgage delinquency rate, which rose for the first time in a year in the second quarter. There was better news on the... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's sub-par economic performance The below par 2% rate of Canadian GDP growth over the first half of this year must be a concern for policy makers, particularly when the chances are that growth will slow even further in the second... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Household deleveraging on track Households may be two-thirds the way through the necessary deleveraging process. What’s more, a larger proportion of the remaining deleveraging will be achieved by incomes growing rather than debt... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
