US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug. 12) Mortgage applications for home purchase fell sharply in August, providing further evidence that mortgage-dependent buyers are barely contributing to the recovery in housing market activity. Without a... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) August’s ISM manufacturing index gives the Fed another green light to launch QE3 next week. Such action is warranted, but it won’t dramatically alter the economic landscape. 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Despite the slowdown in the pace of wider economic growth, house prices are growing strongly. Moreover, the recovery looks broad based, encompassing both distressed and non-distressed homes. 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke further paves the path towards QE3 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke used his speech at Jackson Hole today to state that unconventional monetary policy does work and that the US needs more of it. It now appears even more likely that at the... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's current account deficit sound? Canada's current account deficit is likely to widen due to slower forecast global economic growth and lower commodity prices. That said, the large net financial deficit of households indicates that... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2012) Canada's 1.8% annualised second-quarter GDP growth was slightly stronger than we had assumed, but was still short of the 2% or more needed to help reduce excess capacity in the economy. With... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the fiscal cliff already dampening activity? Although the tax hikes and spending cuts that constitute the fiscal cliff aren’t due to take place until the start of next year, businesses are increasingly stating that the resulting fiscal... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Payroll Survey (Jun.) & Balance of Payments (Q2) June's non-farm payroll survey data, which showed solid gains in average weekly earnings and employment, indicate that better second-quarter wages and salaries growth supported stronger consumption... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Fiscal cliff may hit hiring Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by around 100,000 in August, which would be disappointing after July’s 163,000 gain. What’s more, it is possible that in the... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDI may be a more robust, and worrying, measure of growth The alternative gross domestic income (GDI) measure of output suggests that the US economy is hardly growing at all. What’s more, there are a couple of reasons why GDI may be a more robust and more... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US Banks continue to strengthen balance sheets According to the latest data from the FDIC, US banks continued to benefit from shrinking loan losses in the second quarter, which allowed them to maintain a high capital ratio even as they expanded... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profit margins under pressure The 4.9% q/q decline in second-quarter business operating profits casts further doubt on the outlook for investment and payroll employment. We certainly expect the decline in profit margins to... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August suggests that households are becoming more nervous. Coming after last week’s soft durable goods orders data, this is another... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q2) The moderation in the pace of economic growth does not appear to have had a significant detrimental impact on the recovery in US house prices. At the end of the second quarter, prices on the National... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada close to dropping hawkish bias The Bank of Canada's policy statement next week is likely to retain its hawkish bias about the need to raise interest rates. Given the faltering global economy and stalling domestic housing market... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Businesses becoming increasingly cautious The sharp downturn in capital goods orders suggests that the continuing euro-zone crisis and growing uncertainty about the outlook for US fiscal policy are having an increasingly marked impact on... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
