US Chart Pack US economy hit by global slowdown The global economic slowdown appears to be having a more marked impact on the US economy, with exports falling sharply in July and manufacturing output dropping in August. The survey evidence now... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing correction begins in earnest The decade-long run-up in home prices, which has seen prices rise in some cities by over 150%, is now going into reverse, with national home prices falling in August for the first time in more than... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts & Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Consistent with our view that the housing market is experiencing a sustainable recovery, today’s data releases showed a further improvement in housing activity. 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is QE3 a success after all? The early evidence suggests that the Fed’s latest policy actions have already started to have their desired effect on financial markets. But there are large question marks over whether these moves... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing bubble bursting? The recent slump in home sales suggests that a housing correction is underway. Assuming that sales continue to trend lower over the remainder of this year, then the typical lag relationship between... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug. 12) The annual growth rates of the various broad money aggregates have slowed recently, but they will accelerate again as the Fed restarts its quantitative easing, this time purchasing $40bn of mortgage... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are things better than four years ago? The fall in the real median household income to a 16-year low in 2011 means that many Americans are worse off now than they were when President Obama first took office. But the whole economy is... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stalling exports adds to economy's woes The surge in Canada's monthly trade deficit to a record high of C$2.34bn in July illustrated that the deteriorating global economic backdrop is beginning to have a very marked impact. The widening of... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How positive is QE3 for housing? Further MBS purchases by the Fed won’t engineer the same drop in mortgage interest rates that earlier rounds did, and with mortgage-dependent buyers playing a relatively marginal role in the housing... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Despite the sharp increase in gasoline prices and the looming fiscal cliff, the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence rose to a four-month high of 79.2 in September, from 74.3 in... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) The main message from August’s retail sales and industrial production data is that economic growth remains subdued, and it could yet get weaker. 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul. 12) The surprising 2.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in July, partly due to volatility in aerospace, casts doubt over whether or not the economy actually grew in that month. This weakness... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) Consumer prices increased by a sizeable 0.6% m/m in August, largely thanks to a 9.0% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Nevertheless, even after that big monthly gain, the annual rate of inflation only... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed launches open-ended QE3 The Fed today announced an open-ended QE3 focused on MBS purchases and extended its conditional commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero through mid-2015. There were numerous other tweaks to... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How concerning is the high contract cancellation rate? It’s obviously not good that 15% or more of all contracted home sales aren’t making it through to closing. But to the extent that the increase in the cancellation rate reflects would-be buyers’ desire... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack High household debt difficult to hurdle Households have been running a financial deficit for over a decade, a significant departure from their normal role as net savers, resulting in a massive increase in household debt. This trend has... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
