US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Aug.) & GDP (Q2 3rd Est.) Don't panic. The massive 13.2% m/m slump in durable goods orders in August was largely due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component. In addition, the downward revision... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) New home sales declined fractionally in August. However, with the new-build premium sharply lower and mortgage rates falling to record lows, we expect them to resume their upward trend before too long... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Pick-up in consumption growth likely to be temporary Although consumption growth has been fairly weak in the first half of this year, favourable income trends and a rebound in July's retail sales suggest that it may have picked up a little in the... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How has the Fed's reaction function changed? The Fed's decision to restart its large-scale asset purchases, this time with an open-ended agency MBS programme, is part of what could potentially be a much wider shift in the monetary policy... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Thanks to the continued rally in equity prices, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence shot up to a seven-month high of 70.3 in September, from 61.3 in August. It appears that... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) The sixth successive monthly rise in house prices in July supports our view that, even with the broader economic recovery struggling to gain traction, the housing recovery is sustainable. 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July's 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales volumes was somewhat stronger than we had assumed, but only helps to offset declines in wholesale trade and manufacturing sales, which we think restrained July's... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed‘s purchases of MBS may have limits QE3 could eventually leave the Fed holding nearly 30% of all mortgage-backed securities, making it a bigger player in the market than either banks or mutual funds. This suggests that, unless economic... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Businesses are not hoarding more cash It is encouraging that, faced with the prospect of the US economy hitting the fiscal cliff at the end of the year, businesses have not started to hoard more cash. At the same time, though, there is... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally looks overdone The recent surge in the Canadian dollar coincides neatly with the general rally in equity and commodity markets. The economic fundamentals that would typically justify this movement, however, are... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug. 12) The official 'core' inflation figure, which nudged down to 1.6% in August from 1.7% in July, is likely to decline further in the coming months as external and domestic risks dampen GDP growth. With... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt deleveraging continues Despite the ongoing euro-zone crisis, the looming fiscal cliff and a drop back in the value of their financial assets, US households actually increased their debts in the second quarter by $74bn at an... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update NAHB index overdoing the homebuilding recovery The homebuilding sector is recovering and we expect housing starts to post a decent year-on-year gain both this year and next. Nevertheless, a surge in starts on the scale implied by the NAHB... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE3 may dwarf other central bank policies The sheer size of the Fed’s QE3 policy becomes even more apparent when it is compared to the policies of other central banks. Although we doubt that QE3 will set the US economy alight, the greater... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing correction only just beginning Canada's already lacklustre rate of economic growth is only going to slow further as the housing correction intensifies. Home sales are now falling sharply and it is only a matter of time before... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Markit Manufacturing PMI & Philly Fed (Sep.) The key message from the host of September manufacturing surveys recently released is that conditions haven’t really deteriorated since last month, but industry is still the weakest part of the... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
