Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (2012Q3) Businesses are clearly more cautious about the outlook for sales and we think they are still too optimistic, especially now that the domestic economy looks vulnerable to a housing correction... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household Balance Sheets (2012 Q2) Revised data released today show that Canada's household debt problem is even worse than previously thought. Debt growth dynamics over the last decade look eerily similar to the US experience, just... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) & Empire State Index (Oct.) The strong rise in retail sales in September was probably flattered by a gain in food prices (triggered by the recent drought) and the release of Apple’s iPhone 5. Nonetheless, it now seems likely... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Sluggish GDP growth likely to stay Disappointing third-quarter trade figures, both for exports and imports, suggests that even our own bearish view on quarterly GDP growth of 1.4% annualised might be too high. Barring significant... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Impact of QE3 already fading The initial reaction to the Fed's QE3 announcement in mid-September was fairly encouraging. Unfortunately, only a few weeks later, things don't look quite as promising. Agency MBS yields have... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Producer Prices (Sep.) & Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence shot up to a five-year high of 83.1 in October, from 78.3, but we're not convinced this upturn will lead to faster consumption growth. For a... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economic growth may be far from over In a new academic paper, Robert Gordon speculates that per capita economic growth in the US could permanently stagnate, as fading innovation is compounded by headwinds from demography, education... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) August trade figures were disappointing. Export volumes were largely unchanged and there were downward revisions to export growth in previous months. Overall, we calculate that net exports likely... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug. 12) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $44.2bn in August, from $42.5bn, was due to the combination of a drop in exports and an increase in the value of petroleum-related imports. 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market slack likely to increase Government officials insist that much of the slack in the labour market following the 2009 recession has been taken up. Alternative measures, however, contradict this message. Admittedly, the official... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update New-build premium starting to drop The price premium attached to new-builds has fallen over the past six months. Moreover, continued strong investor demand, which is bidding up prices among the lowest tier of existing homes, should see... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Seasonal problems with the U6 unemployment rate Jack Welch's tweet wasn't the only piece of nonsense written last week about the reported decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8% in September. The decline in the standard measure was questioned by... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update IMF still overly optimistic on Canada The IMF's revised economic growth outlook for Canada, which anticipates a slight pick-up in 2013 annual GDP growth, looks in our view to be overly optimistic. As we forewarned, the global economic... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage interest rates drop further on QE3 The announcement of the third round of quantitative easing, during which the Fed will buy $40bn of mortgage-backed securities per month until the outlook for the labour market improves ‘substantially’... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Bank deleveraging behind the slump in financial flows While the net external financial surplus, which offsets the current account deficit, has remained broadly unchanged at around 3% of GDP over the past few years, the separate financial inflows and... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
