US Chart Pack Consumers rally, while businesses run scared The US economy has developed something of a split personality lately, with consumer confidence hitting a five-year high, while capital goods orders, an indicator of business investment, fall at a pace... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada hawkish bias targets households The Bank of Canada is still saying that its policy rate will need to rise from the current 1%, but there appears to have been a shift in its reasoning for maintaining the tightening bias. Given the... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug. 12) Despite the 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales volumes in August, the rebounds in both wholesale trade and manufacturing sales suggest that GDP growth increased by a firm 0.2% m/m in August. Nonetheless... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks cut their exposure to German banks New figures show that US banks have not just continued to reduce their exposure to those euro-zone nations most in trouble, but they have also started to trim their exposure to German banks. This... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment outlook less encouraging Despite the global economic slowdown, Canadian business investment is just about holding up, largely thanks to the strength of engineering and construction projects. All things considered, we think... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumption gaining some traction It is encouraging that only a small part of the recent acceleration in consumption growth is due to the release of Apple’s iPhone 5 and that the recovery in the housing market is gathering pace. But... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Following August’s very strong rise, existing home sales predictably gave up a little ground in September. Nevertheless, the bigger picture remains that, driven by extremely favourable valuation and... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) Core inflation fell further below the Bank of Canada's 2% target in September, to 1.3%, its lowest rate in over a year. With slower anticipated GDP growth this quarter and next, underlying inflation... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update A closer look at the presidential candidates’ housing plans The election campaign has been frustratingly light on detail with regards to housing policy. Piecing together what we have, however, it looks like anyone expecting either candidates’ housing plan to... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to rock the boat again so soon After the launch of QE3 and the strengthening of its forward-looking guidance at the last meeting in mid-September, we don't anticipate any major changes from the Fed at next week's two-day FOMC... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) In another sign that the improvement in the housing market is gathering pace, housing starts smashed the consensus expectation for a small gain and rose by a very strong 15% m/m. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economy developing split personality The US economy appears to be developing a split personality. Households, seemingly oblivious to the scheduled jump in marginal tax rates that will reduce their after-tax income next year, are... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Hawkish bias likely to be scratched early next year We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its tightening bias in next week's policy statement. With the euro-zone taking a temporary step back from the brink and US consumers spending more freely, the... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The solid 1.8% m/m rebound in August's manufacturing sales volumes, partially due to volatility in petroleum and coal products, and upward revisions to July's data are encouraging. Overall, this helps... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Sep.) At the start of next year, the MPC will have to decide what to do with those gilts purchased in its quantitative easing (QE) programme that are about to mature. We expect the Committee to maintain its... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While the annual growth rates of the slightly narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates have slowed in recent months, the growth rate of our broader M3 measure has accelerated. Moreover, there is a good... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
