US Economics Update Obama re-election doesn’t alter bigger picture The re-election of President Obama removes one uncertainty that has been weighing on the markets over the last few months. But they are none the wiser about if, how and when Congress will deal with... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 12) After rising strongly in the early part of October, mortgage applications have since dropped steadily despite the very low level of mortgage interest rates. This suggests that tight lending criteria... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Solving the business hiring/investment puzzle Businesses are developing a split personality. The slump in capital goods orders suggests that businesses are increasingly concerned about the looming fiscal cliff and/or the global economic slowdown... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) All of the small month-on-month fall in the CoreLogic house price index in September was down to predictable seasonal factors. After accounting for the usual slowdown at this time of year, house... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Further slump in wage growth unlikely We doubt that the fall in the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings to a record low in October is the start of another downward leg that will eventually end in outright declines in earnings... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Signs that willing sellers are returning Having fallen briefly following the announcement of QE3, MBS yields and mortgage interest rates were rising again in the final weeks of October. Of course, the bigger picture remains that mortgage... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses halt investment ahead of the fiscal cliff The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested that businesses are increasingly putting on hold investment decisions just in case Congress allows the fiscal cliff to hit. There is a growing... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturers in path of perfect storm The fragility of the global economic recovery, as we have long forewarned, has resurfaced and signs point to a material slowdown in global growth and commodity prices. Unfortunately, the global... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct. 12) October's unexpectedly weak 1,800 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) can be forgiven given the unusually strong gains in the previous two months. The worsening economic outlook... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) We doubt that October's Employment Report is either strong enough or weak enough to have any marked impact on next week's presidential election. Non-farm payrolls increased by a better than expected... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How "good" economic data can be "bad" for commodities The slide in commodity prices today following the release of an apparently strong US Employment Report underlines their sensitivity to expectations of further monetary support. As it happens, the pace... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) A mild improvement in the global economy appears to be supporting American industry while, at the same time, the housing recovery has continued to strengthen. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Despite the increase in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a near-five-year high of 72.2 in October, from 68.4 in September, annualised consumption growth is unlikely to post a... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What to make of the decline in the jumbo mortgage rate spread? At face value, the decline in the spread of jumbo mortgage interest rates over the rates on conforming loans is one of a number of signs that restrictions on the availability of jumbo mortgages have... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks more willing to lend, but demand faltering The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) shows that banks are more willing to lend, but the problem is that, with global economic growth slowing and the fiscal cliff looming, US households... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The surprising 0.1% m/m decline in monthly GDP for August suggests the economy might have struggled to grow by even 1% annualised in the third quarter, below our previous estimate of 1.4%. Given the... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
