US Economics Weekly Will financial stability concerns force the Fed to curb QE3? In light of last week's revelations in the minutes from January's FOMC meeting, Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony this week will be watched particularly closely for any signs that he is... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) Following a year in which India’s growth weakened, external deficit widened, and sovereign ratings came under pressure, the upcoming budget will be a crucial test of the government’s policy... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies & Existing Sales (Q4/Jan) Together, the fall in foreclosure starts and the foreclosure inventory and the rise in the number of non-distressed home sales are encouraging signs of a housing market returning to health. 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices data provide a timely reminder that, even though it is now four years since the Fed first started expanding its balance sheet, there are few signs that inflation is becoming... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Fed about to take the punch bowl away? Despite the uncertainty created by the latest FOMC minutes, we do not believe that the Fed will be in any hurry to halt its additional asset purchases completely. Nonetheless, the reaction in the... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Falling house prices setting a precedent for further declines National home prices have been in decline for five consecutive months and we anticipate further declines this year, as potential buyers are scared off by the prospect of capital losses. We standby our... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed contemplating early end to QE3 The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting in late January suggest that rising fears over the potential costs from further quantitative easing could prompt Fed officials to reduce or even halt the... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan. 13) January’s large drop in housing starts isn’t as bad as the headline numbers suggest. And with housing starts still significantly below normal levels, there is plenty of scope for strong gains later... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Brighter forestry prospects no harbinger for Canada The turnaround in the US housing market, which has pushed lumber prices up to multi-year highs, is benefiting Canada's forestry exporters. However, the pick-up in demand for lumber south of the border... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The Fed’s QE3 policy has contributed to the acceleration in the growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money to a four-year high of 6.5% in January. But the continued expansion in the Fed’s balance... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update G20 doubles up on familiar messages The fall-out from an extended period of monetary expansion in the US and Japan will continue to ripple around the global financial system, not least in the form of capital flows to emerging markets... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Considerable economic slack dampening inflation We think that the Bank of Canada has been underestimating the amount of slack in the economy, which explains why its recent quarterly inflation forecasts have erred on the high side. Looking ahead... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Currency wars and cash hoarding concerns overblown All the recent talk of currency wars is overdone and holds few implications for the US economy. The rise in the dollar against the yen has just been offset by a fall against the euro. The dollar trade... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 76.3 in February, from 73.8, probably reflects a mixture of better news on the labour market and the continued rally in stock... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Jan.) & Empire State Index (Feb.) There’s no need to be concerned by the fall in manufacturing output in January. The improvement in the survey evidence and the slightly better global backdrop actually mean that industrial conditions... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's disappointing 3.1% m/m drop in manufacturing sales more than offset the previous month's rebound and suggests that industrial production faltered at the end of last year. Overall, the risks... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
