US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb. 13) February’s retail sales figures suggest that, so far at least, households are coping well with the burden of more taxation and higher gasoline prices. It now looks as though consumption growth in the... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market improvement falling short of “substantial” The recent strengthening in the labour market is encouraging, but today’s news on the rates at which workers are being hired and are quitting is further evidence that it falls short of the... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Supply of homes nears record low At 2.07m, the inventory of homes for sale fell to its lowest level since 1994 in January, and is the sixth lowest level ever recorded in the 30-year history of the data. With home sales now at a... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More signs of a “reach for yield” The willingness of investors to snap up the record amount of corporate bonds issued in the fourth quarter of last year may concern some Fed officials as it could be a sign that low interest rates are... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery picking up pace despite headwinds The US recovery still appears to be on track and is possibly even strengthening a little, despite the lingering impact of the expiry of the payroll tax cut, the recent surge in gasoline prices and the... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Consensus clings to pick-up in exports and investment The underlying impetus for economic growth is fading. For 2013, we doubt that export and business investment growth will provide strong enough pillars to offset modest consumption growth, government... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey & Housing Starts (Feb.) February's 50,700 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was +8,000) is a big surprise given how weak GDP growth has been recently. Even after taking into account the 21,900 jobs lost in January... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) February's Employment Report isn't a game changer, but it adds to the evidence from the upbeat ISM surveys released earlier this week that, despite the expiry of the payroll tax cut, higher gasoline... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economy-wide deleveraging may be over The economy-wide deleveraging process, which has constrained the economic recovery over the past four years, may now be over. Moreover, as any remaining deleveraging in the household sector can be... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Still gaining momentum Rebounding household formation and continued investor interest will help housing demand rise further this year. And while supply conditions will stop tightening, they will remain very tight. The... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade & Building Permits (Jan.) January's external trade data bodes well for first-quarter real GDP growth, which we anticipate will increase by 1.5% annualised. Other data released this morning also shows that January's residential... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan. 13) The rebound in the trade deficit to $44.4bn in January, from $38.1bn in December of last year, was a bit bigger than expected (consensus forecast was $42.6bn) and suggests that net external trade will... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada continues to back off rate hikes With inflation now below target and the economy operating well below its potential, it was no surprise to see the Bank of Canada back even further away from raising interest rates. We still think that... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Potential student loan losses are not a systemic concern Rapidly rising delinquency rates have made us more concerned about the quadrupling in student loan debt over the past decade to £1trn. But we still don’t think this poses a major threat to the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The increase in mortgage interest rates in February weighed on mortgage applications for home purchase and took some heat out of the refinancing boom. But rates are still very low and will continue to... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's exporters struggling to tap US recovery Canada's economy grew by only 0.7% annualised over the second half of last year, with a decline in exports subtracting almost 2 percentage points from annualised GDP. The recent lacklustre pace of non... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
