US Chart Pack Recovery strengthening The US economic recovery appears to be strengthening. Despite the impact of the payroll tax hike and higher gasoline prices on real incomes, first-quarter real consumption growth is on course to... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) Homebuilding volumes increased in February and, despite the homebuilder recovery coming up against a few snags, there’s good reason to think that the rebound in construction activity has much further... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) January's disappointing 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes suggest that industrial production might have struggled to rebound from December's decline. Thankfully, wholesale activity... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The growth rates of broad money, including our own measure of M3, have slowed recently, even as the Fed has expanded its quantitative easing. We suspect this decline reflects a fall in the... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Housing starting to boost industry and employment In addition to the direct boost to GDP from homebuilding, the housing recovery has started to provide an indirect boost by supporting both industrial activity and employment. The possibility that the... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Return of housing equity withdrawal here to stay For the first time in four years households are withdrawing more cash from their homes than they are putting into them. Rather than being a temporary blip, we think that this marks the start of a... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market inflation pressures won't amount to much The current signs of inflationary pressure in the labour market will probably amount to nothing. Although we are mindful that accelerating earnings growth could be an early indication that... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak hourly earnings limits wage growth The strong pick-up in Labour Force Survey hours worked suggest that first-quarter wages and salaries growth should improve from the modest 2.4% annualised gain posted in the fourth quarter of last... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Feb.) & Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The combination of the payroll tax hike and rising gasoline prices was probably behind the unexpected drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to a 15-month low of 71.8 in... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb. 13) Aside from the rise in gasoline prices, which is now being reversed, it is hard to find any evidence of major consumer price pressures in the economy. This will allow the Fed to maintain its attack on... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lenders' capacity constraints still a brake on recovery Capacity constraints in lenders’ mortgage departments are one of the few remaining bottlenecks in the housing recovery and one of the factors contributing to the marginal role being played by mortgage... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to taper QE3 soon We don’t expect that the recent improvement in labour market conditions and growing concerns over the costs of ultra-loose monetary policy will prompt the Fed to reduce the size of its monthly asset... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing downturn gathering force The downward trend in both existing home sales and housing starts indicates that the housing slowdown is unfortunately becoming more broad-based. As demand and supply imbalances intensify this year... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Lower inflation may further delay return to fiscal balance Concerns about when governments will meet their budget deficit elimination goals have mostly centred on rosy consensus real GDP growth forecasts. But lower inflation could also result in even longer... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb. 13) February’s retail sales figures suggest that, so far at least, households are coping well with the burden of more taxation and higher gasoline prices. It now looks as though consumption growth in the... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market improvement falling short of “substantial” The recent strengthening in the labour market is encouraging, but today’s news on the rates at which workers are being hired and are quitting is further evidence that it falls short of the... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
