Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan. 13) January's 0.2% m/m rebound in monthly GDP, which reversed a similar-sized contraction in the final month of last year, still leaves the economy struggling to advance at a rate anywhere close to the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Future monetary tightening and the prospects for US equities We doubt that the US stock market will fare well in the run-up to, and during the early stages of, the next tightening of monetary policy. Admittedly, this would buck the trend since 1970, when, on... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How long before US corporate profit margins are squeezed? Although the profit share in the US corporate sector is likely to have remained at a very high level in Q4 2012, we continue to expect margins to be squeezed this year. Further gains in the stock... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The stronger than expected pick-up in headline inflation to 1.2% in February, from 0.5% in January, mostly reflects higher gasoline and motor vehicle prices. It does not alter the near-term outlook... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Effects of sequester hard to see, but likely to be small It’s going to be almost impossible to observe what impact the sequester government spending cuts is having on the labour market. But we expect it will be fairly small. In any case, it is too soon for... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US net debt to foreigners still manageable Despite endless claims that the US is hopelessly indebted to foreigners, which will eventually lead to a collapse in the dollar and/or rampant inflation, its net external liabilities are actually... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March's sharp decline in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 59.7, from 68.0 in February, is probably a delayed reaction to higher gasoline prices, which were prevalent during... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Jan./Feb.) House prices posted another solid gain at the start of 2013, with the geographical footprint of the recovery taking in yet more areas. 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 5.7% m/m rebound in February's durable goods orders, which was above the 3.9% consensus forecast and a bit below our 6.5% call, is not quite as good as it looks. Nevertheless, business investment... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Lower vehicle prices will help to drive sales Renewed falls in vehicle prices probably won’t reduce CPI inflation by much. But, along with the latest drop in financing rates and loosening in loan criteria, they provide support to our view that... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturing still faces considerable headwinds While at some point the latest pick-up in the US economic recovery will translate into stronger Canadian manufacturing sales, we suspect that the weak pulse of the domestic economy will limit any... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A domestically driven recovery We are heartened by the recent signs that economic growth is being driven by more sustainable domestic forces rather than potentially temporary overseas influences. This leaves the economy well placed... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The increase in the number of existing home sales in February is more evidence that the housing recovery is continuing unabated. But the real news in this morning’s NAR numbers is the rise in the... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The flat growth in January's retail sales volumes suggests that the slowdown in consumption growth seen at the end of last quarter appears to have continued into the first quarter. Accordingly, there... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks with its QE plans for now The Fed acknowledged in its statement today that the economy was again growing at a "moderate" pace and FOMC participants revised their forecasts for the unemployment rate slightly lower for 2014 and... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) Despite the past weakening in existing home sales and rising number of properties for sale, the annual growth rate of house prices remained at 2.7% in February. As sales continue to trend lower... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
