Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada sticks with rate tightening bias The Bank of Canada's decision to stick with its rate tightening bias, despite growing economic slack and below-target inflation, rests uncomfortably on its faith that economic growth will accelerate... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Mar.) Despite house prices rebounding by 0.4% m/m in March, the annual rate of house price growth dropped to a three-year low of 2.6%, down from 2.7% in February. We expect that, as existing home sales... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Feb.) February's surprising 2.5% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes, which follows two consecutive monthly declines, suggests that overall economic growth in that month might have increased by 0.2%... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Mar.) With inflation remaining unusually low, the Fed is under little pressure to slow or halt QE. We expect it to continue with open-ended asset purchases until early next year, although it may still slow... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) The big rise in starts in March should help to calm the nerves of those worrying that the homebuilding recovery is running out of steam. Starts will fall back next month and there are challenges... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing demand likely to soften further The year-on-year drop in existing home sales supports our view that a potentially hard housing market correction is underway. Assuming that home sales continue to trend lower this year, then this will... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the annual spring swoon? The run of weak economic data reports, which continued last week with the news of an unexpected decline in March retail sales, has led to speculation that the US economy is enduring yet another spring... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing starts slump half way done The downward trend in housing starts is not over. While home builders continue to 'adjust' to softening housing demand, the oversupply of new unoccupied housing units are likely to become more... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Talk of a US housing bubble is premature We place significant emphasis on valuations in our analysis of residential property markets. So we cannot take issue with those who have recently pointed out that house price gains which are twice the... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Coming after a weak retail sales report for March, the sharp drop in April's University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence to a nine-month low of 72.3, from 78.6, is another sign of a slowdown... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Mar.) The surprise fall in retail sales in March adds to other evidence that the US economy is experiencing another spring slowdown. But we doubt that the easing in economic growth in the coming quarters... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Business pullback could not come at worse time Weaker business investment intentions could not come at a worse time for the domestic economy. With housing investment contracting and governments reining in spending, slower business investment... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Obama's budget will kick-start new round of negotiations President Obama's budget proposals for fiscal year 2014 will now kick-start a renewed round of negotiations in Congress that, at best, could result in a much-coveted grand bargain or, at worst if the... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank edging closer to neutral We don't anticipate any major changes from the Bank of Canada at Governor Mark Carney's penultimate policy meeting next Wednesday (April 17th), but the Bank will be forced to admit in the accompanying... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How dependent are low US Treasury yields on QE3? The conventional wisdom appears to be that 10-year Treasury yields are only likely to remain below 2% if the US central bank maintains its current pace of buying. In fact, the launches of successive... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Existing housing supply posts meaningful rise The inventory of new homes for sale has been rising for six months now, and in February the supply of existing homes for sale posted its first meaningful increase in two years. Admittedly, the 3.7% m... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
