US Economics Weekly Fed won’t provide numerical thresholds for QE3 The Fed won’t follow its recent hint that it could increase as well as reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchases by stating what combination of the unemployment and inflation rates would trigger... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New Bank Governor, same problems The announcement that Stephen Poloz will be the next Bank of Canada Governor came as something of a surprise, since the current number two at the Bank, Tiff Macklem, was widely tipped to take over... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The better than expected 165,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April, combined with the 114,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, will go a long way toward soothing fears of... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate likely to fall further yet Tight credit conditions and the backlog of foreclosures still to be worked through mean that the homeownership rate will slide lower over the next year or so. But with owner-occupation still the... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar. 13) Canada posted it's first monthly trade surplus in a year in March. Unfortunately, we expect the improvement to be fleeting. The March figures were flattered by a big weather-related jump in natural... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar. 13) The sharp decline in the monthly trade deficit to $38.8bn in March, from $43.6bn the month before, is largely due to a distortion caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year Holiday in China. There is... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed appears less inclined to curb QE anytime soon The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook didn't change much in the statement issued today, but the FOMC nevertheless felt it necessary to flag up explicitly that the pace of asset purchases could... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The slowdown in global economic growth appears to have hit American manufacturers in April. The ISM manufacturing index dropped to 50.7 in April, from 51.3 in March, erasing almost all of the gain... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The sharp rebound in April's Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 68.1, from an upwardly revised 61.9 in March, was driven by the decline in gasoline prices and the continued rally in... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q1/Feb) Some 14 months after the trough in house prices, the homeownership rate is still declining. In other words, although there are some signs that conventional, mortgage-dependent buyers are playing more... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The bigger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in Canada's monthly GDP for February, alongside the upward revision to January's gain, suggests that first-quarter GDP growth was at least 2% annualised. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Headline PCE inflation to slip below 1% The latest fall in gasoline prices will soon drag headline PCE inflation below 1%. With core PCE inflation set to remain only just above 1.0%, the Fed is likely to become more concerned by the subdued... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Provincial growth to weaken further in 2013 The release of the provincial GDP figures for 2012 provides us with more evidence that the resource-rich western provinces were behind the bulk of the slowdown in overall economic growth last year... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal squeeze to continue With the full impact of the sequestration spending cuts, equivalent to roughly 0.7% of GDP, still to feed through, over the next 12 months the public sector will remain a significant drag on economic... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Low inflation may concern the Fed The Fed’s preferred PCE measure of core inflation could soon fall to around 1%. Together with the recent weakening in the tone of the incoming activity data, this may mean the Fed is less inclined to... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending abroad pinching domestic retail sales The recent softening in retail sales suggests that household consumption growth has slowed almost to a crawl. Our analysis shows that retailers are struggling partly because households, enticed by the... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
