Canada Economics Weekly Canada's housing downturn mirroring US slump Home building in Canada is on an ominous downward slope, similar in many ways to what happened in the early stages of the slump in the US. For this reason we think it is premature for policymakers to... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fears about student loans still look overdone The latest data from the New York Fed have reignited concerns about a possible bubble in student loans. But the growth of student loans has always been faster than the growth in other types of... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2013) The pick-up in GDP growth to 2.5% annualised in the first quarter is unlikely to be sustained because it was partly due to a one-off rebound in energy exports. Those exports are now almost completely... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence falters on insufficient domestic demand The further decline in the small and medium-sized business confidence in May suggests that second-quarter GDP growth may have slowed down to less than half the estimated 2.2% annualised in the first... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are inventory levels starting to normalise? The return of double-digit rates of house price inflation has grabbed most of the headlines in recent days. But equally significant are signs that sellers are returning to the market in force. We... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions improving slightly Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by a solid 175,000, in May, although we suspect the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.5%. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Wages and salaries less supportive to consumption growth Political unrest, a fragile banking sector and a weak fiscal position are all likely to weigh on Bahrain’s economy over the next few years. As a result, we expect it to be one of the worst performers... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US lending further The FDIC’s latest banking figures show that, buoyed by falling loan default rates, the quarterly net income of US banks hit a record high of $40bn in the first quarter. The expiry of the unlimited... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank stands pat and waits for new Governor The Bank of Canada stood pat, leaving its tightening bias unchanged ahead of the arrival of the new Governor. The challenges that Governor Poloz will face, namely a weak global economy, volatile... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery now being held back by fiscal tightening The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Declining profits likely to hinder business investment Against the fragile global backdrop and the volatility of Canadian energy prices, business operating profits, which nudged lower in the first quarter of this year, are likely to remain under... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (May) Thanks to the continued rally in equity prices, falling gasoline prices and the housing recovery, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to a five-year high of 76.2 in May, from 69.0... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q1) In the first quarter, the annual rate of house price growth moved back into double-digit territory on each of the three main Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. These were the first double-digit readings... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deflation alert Underlying inflation has fallen below the Bank of Canada's inflation 1% to 3% target range and could decline even further if the real economy underperforms this year. Accordingly, without additional... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed struggling to explain likely evolution of asset purchases For a central bank that supposedly puts so much weight on clear communications, last week’s various attempts by Federal Reserve officials to explain when it might begin curbing its open ended monthly... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 3.3% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in April is another sign that growth is holding up quite well. We anticipate a 5% annualised gain in business investment in the second quarter, with... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
