US Housing Market Chart Pack Inventory levels inch higher The latest readings from the CoreLogic and Case-Shiller house price indices show that prices have posted double-digit gains over the past year. But not all the past month’s housing news was so buoyant... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Households looking increasingly healthy The Fed’s latest US Financial Accounts (formerly known as the Flow of Funds Accounts) highlight that in a few years’ time, US households will be well placed to contribute to a prolonged period of... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Field of dreams: Is farmland the next bubble? There does appear to be a localised bubble in farmland values in the corn belt. Near-zero interest rates have undoubtedly played some role in this, but the bigger factor has been the surge in corn and... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada's housing downturn far from over Recent housing evidence does not convince us that Canada's housing downturn has stabilised. As housing demand remains sluggish in certain markets and softens further in others, we expect the still... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Time running out for policymakers' hopes of rebalancing It is becoming more clear that sluggish global demand and volatile commodity prices will outlast the willingness and ability of households' to provide debt-fuelled support to economic growth. Without... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Significant surge in Treasury yields is still unlikely We do not place much weight on concerns that the recent rise in Treasury yields will snuff out the economic recovery or that it is the start of a sharp and sustained rise in yields similar to that... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The spectacular 95,000 increase in employment in May is almost the strongest on record and obviously makes up for the unusually soft figures over the previous several months. But the recent volatile... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) By revealing a decent rise in payroll employment but a small rise in the unemployment rate, May’s Employment Report had something for everyone. Our reading is that it leaves the Fed on track to taper... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market recovery marching on The stronger-than-expected start to the year means that the risks to our house price forecasts have shifted to the upside. However, we think it is more likely than not that the pace of house price... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack GDP growth to be pulled down by domestic weakness The pick-up in first-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, propelled by an energy-driven rebound in net exports, masks the undertow from the slowing domestic economy. Government spending restraint... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Further dip in core inflation won't prevent trimming of QE3 Core inflation is unlikely to fall to a level that will spark concerns about deflation and prevent the Fed from slowing the pace of its monthly asset purchases later this year. This is mainly because... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) For all the talk of a renewed US housing bubble, today’s mortgage applications data are a reminder that the recovery remains highly dependent on loose monetary policy. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April's encouraging 0.7% m/m advance in export volumes, following the previous month's much stronger gain, indicates that exports are holding up and that external trade may continue to buffer GDP... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $40.3bn in April, from $37.1bn in March, was largely due to an unwinding of the distortion caused by the Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday. 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) House price gains of 12% per annum are clearly not sustainable. But in the short-term, news that the housing sector shows few signs of slowing will surely be something of a relief, following yesterday... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a near four-year low of 49.0 in May, from 50.7, suggests that weak global conditions are weighing on US producers. While the manufacturing sector is... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
