Canada Economics Update Softer business survey suggests slowdown in GDP growth The further decline in the CFIB's measure of small and medium-sized business confidence in June provides us with more evidence that, after the decent 2.5% annualised gain in the first quarter, second... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How far can the Bank of Japan's QE replace the Fed's? Japanese investors are perhaps more likely to follow global trends than to lead them, but the Bank of Japan will help keep global monetary conditions loose even when the Fed starts to taper QE3. 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Softer surveys point to more modest monthly job gains The recent weakening in the survey evidence suggests that jobs growth in June may not have quite matched the 175,000 rise in payroll employment in May. But an increase in payrolls of around 150,000... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus In case of emergency: Blow the budget Fiscal policy might have to provide more stimulus soon unless economic growth improves materially. For housing bears such as ourselves, the potential for additional fiscal stimulus helps to limit the... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates here to stay In light of the changing prospects for US monetary policy, we have revised our 10-year Treasury yield forecasts higher. Accordingly, recent gains in 30-year mortgage rates are unlikely to be unwound... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The increase in Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a five-and-a-half-year high of 81.4 in June, from 74.3, was quite surprising given that the usual determinants of sentiment didn't... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Apr/May) The Case-Shiller house price index posted one of its largest month-on-month rises so far in the recovery in April, and new home sales registered a solid increase in May. But while sales activity can... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) While the 3.6% m/m jump in durable goods orders in May was mainly due to a 51% m/m rebound in volatile commercial aircraft orders, the rest of the report was relatively upbeat. Even if second-quarter... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar's descent likely to continue The Canadian dollar is likely to trend lower against the US dollar this year and next. While further declines in commodity prices are likely to play a minor role, we anticipate narrowing interest rate... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could a '94 style bond bloodbath derail the recovery? The recent surge in Treasury yields is unlikely to develop into a 1994-style bond collapse, principally because the outlook for monetary policy is completely different. Furthermore, for those worried... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The pace of house price gains is set to slow We expect the pace of house price gains to slow later this year and decelerate further in 2014. This will not signal the end of the US housing recovery, but a new phase in which house price growth is... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household sector sensitive to higher long-term rates The recent improvement in the global economic outlook and changing prospects for US monetary policy in particular have prompted us to revise our global bond yield forecasts moderately higher... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Fed’s tapering and rate hike timetable The markets may have overreacted a bit to the details of the Fed’s QE3 tapering timetable and the prospect of the first interest rate hike taking place in two years’ time. Nonetheless, the growing... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) With the official core inflation measure unchanged at a worryingly low 1.1% in May, the output gap would appear to be larger than the Bank of Canada is willing to admit. If, as we expect, economic... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Households' showing signs of borrowing fatigue Although our seasonally-adjusted measure of the household debt-to-income ratio nudged higher in the first quarter of this year, the trend appears to have stabilised. This suggests that there is even... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Higher rates unlikely to derail recovery We doubt that the rapid rise in long-term interest rates in recent weeks will derail the economic recovery. For a start, rates are still at unusually low levels. Moreover, the primary reason why the... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
