US Housing Market Update Foreign buyers peripheral to housing recovery A couple of years ago, a lot was being made of the potential for foreign buyers to come to the rescue of the housing market. We were dubious of these claims at the time, and a recent NAR survey seems... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Limited economic impact from higher borrowing costs It now looks as though annualised GDP growth in the second quarter could be as low as 1.0%. But growth will still accelerate later in the year. It is also encouraging that, so far at least, activity... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Exports and business investment lacking punch The Bank of Canada has set its economic growth hopes on a revival in exports and business investment. Unfortunately, exports and business investment appear to have lost much needed momentum in the... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun. 13) Any doubts (or hopes!) that the Fed wouldn’t follow through on its plan to taper QE3 later this year in response to some of the recent weaker activity data were dealt a major blow by the 195,000... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The fact that employment was unchanged in June, after posting a record-matching 95,000 gain in May, is an encouraging sign that economic conditions did not worsen too much in the second quarter... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy decelerates in second quarter After being propelled by a rebound in energy exports earlier this year, economic growth appears to have decelerated heading into the second quarter. Moderate export growth, cautious business... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) & ADP Survey (Jun.) The sharp widening in the international trade deficit in May suggests that second-quarter annualised GDP growth may be even weaker than the 1.5% we have been expecting. At the same time, the... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications for refinancing tumbled in the face of higher mortgage interest rates in June. But applications for home purchase, which are a better indicator of underlying housing demand, were... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The tide is turning for State & local governments Recent evidence on employment and construction spending has supported our view that a rebound in spending by State and local governments this year will offset some of the drag on GDP growth from a... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Treasury market braced for future Fed tightening? We think the US federal funds rate will have been raised to about 4% by the end of 2017. However, based on a decomposition of the Treasury yield curve, it looks like the bond market is more or less... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May 13) There were few signs of a slowdown in house price gains in the most recent CoreLogic data. But with supply now on the rise, double-digit price gains may not be the norm for too much longer. 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus All you need to know about the Fed’s exit strategy The Fed’s exit strategy is a work in progress that will be determined by the economic data and the evolution of the Fed’s thinking on the costs of unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policies. But we... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 13) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index back above the supposed boom/bust level of 50 in June means that the US economy has passed the first of this week’s two QE3 tapering tests. We expect June’s... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Forward guidance might benefit economy The recent rise in rate expectations and bond yields might prompt the Bank of Canada to consider providing some concrete forward guidance in its next policy statement. While the Bank need not go as... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slower Q2 GDP growth won't change the Fed's plans Last week brought a plethora of economic data which, on balance, indicated that second-quarter growth could be a little weaker than previously expected. We now estimate a modest 1.5% gain in real GDP... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) Canada's economy continued to decelerate at the start of the second quarter, with real GDP expanding by a modest 0.1% m/m in April. Some surprising strength in services helped offset a moderate... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
