Canada Economics Weekly Stronger consumption growth unlikely to last The evidence suggests that, after a paltry 0.9% annualised in the first quarter, second-quarter real consumption growth accelerated to 3.0% annualised. Unfortunately, we suspect that consumption... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) Despite the much bigger than generally expected 4.2% m/m surge in orders in June (consensus forecast was 1.4%, Capital Economics was 4.0%), the latest durable goods report actually suggests that... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business confidence hints at steady Q3 GDP growth The uptick in the CFIB's small and medium-sized business confidence in July suggests that third-quarter GDP might rise by as much as 2.0% annualised. The details behind this optimism, however, appear... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed not quite ready to begin QE tapering There is only a remote chance that the Fed will make any major changes at the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (31st July), waiting instead until September to begin... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun 13.) The strong rise in new home sales in June means that the housing market has come through its first major test of higher mortgage rates unscathed. 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Thinking about the new "new normal" There are reasons to believe that the recent period of sluggish economic growth and near-zero interest rates are coming to a close. While the economy's potential growth rate is probably now only... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Employment gains mean that QE3 tapering still on track Even as estimates for second-quarter GDP growth have been revised lower in response to the disappointing incoming news on activity, the continued resilience of monthly employment gains has persuaded... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) The robust 1.9% m/m gain in May's retail sales volumes, together with earlier reports showing strong increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade, suggest that the economy grew by as much as 0.4% in... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun 13.) The decline in sales and the rise in inventories means that supply conditions in the existing homes market are now the loosest they have been this year. That looks consistent with a slowdown in the... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank's second-quarter GDP estimate is too low We think the Bank of Canada has over-estimated the negative impacts on second-quarter GDP from Alberta's recent major flood and Quebec's construction labour strike. Instead of 1.0% annualised, we... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook improving for both retailers and industry The second half of the year is likely to be much better than the first for both retailers and manufacturers. Faster income growth should help households shrug off the lingering effects of January’s... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No systemic risk from Detroit bankruptcy The filing for bankruptcy by the City of Detroit last night does not pose a systemic risk to America’s financial system. The amount of debt that Detroit is likely to default on is small compared with... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun.) The modest increase in the official core inflation figure in June, to 1.3% from 1.1% in the month before, was mainly due to specific base-year effects. We expect underlying inflation to stay at the... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada softens tightening bias Although the Bank of Canada held its view that the economy will soon accelerate and that interest rates will eventually rise, several dovish tweaks to its policy statement suggest even more strongly... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke reiterates the party line Even though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke just repeated the party line in a slightly different way in his semi-annual testimony to Congress today, the message that the tapering of QE3 is not set in stone... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Housing starts extended their recent rollercoaster ride in June, falling by 9.9% m/m. This reflects a characteristically volatile multi-family sector rather than renewed weakness, and we expect... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
