US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The unexpectedly severe narrowing in the monthly external trade deficit to a near four-year low of $34.2bn in June, from $44.1bn, suggests that second quarter GDP growth was significantly stronger... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) Although it is too soon to be sure, CoreLogic house price index for June brought some tentative evidence that the moderation in the pace of house price gains that we are anticipating in the second... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturers' struggles likely to persist Canadian manufacturing production is being hampered by sluggish foreign demand and, to a lesser extent, moderating domestic demand. While gradually improving US demand is providing much needed support... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Further pick-up in GDP growth expected The 1.7% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP was pretty modest, even if it did come in above market expectations. Nevertheless, most other data releases last week indicated that GDP growth is... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 162,000 increase in non-farm payrolls was a little below the consensus forecast at 185,000, but this isn't going to stop the Fed from reducing its monthly asset purchases at September's FOMC... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are house prices increasing by less than the indices suggest? The decline in the share of distressed sales is having an upward influence on house prices. But we aren’t convinced by claims that the house price indices’ failure to adjust for this effect is somehow... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The entire surge in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year high of 55.4 in July, from 50.9, was due to an improvement in domestic activity. This new level is consistent with a further acceleration... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September There is nothing in the latest FOMC statement released today to suggest that Fed officials have changed their minds about starting to taper the monthly asset purchases in September. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (May) Canada's economy regained some lost momentum mid-way through the last quarter, with real GDP expanding by 0.2% m/m in May. (See Chart.) Taking into consideration the likely weakness in June's GDP due... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) Real GDP growth actually accelerated from 1.1% annualised in the first quarter to 1.7% in the second, suggesting that the recovery is gaining momentum and probably strengthening the Fed's resolve to... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global potash price slump won't harm Canada's economy The anticipated slump in potash prices should have only a minor impact on Canada's economy. Potash mining represents a tiny share of Canada's GDP and exports. Moreover, the relatively lower cost of... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada poised for slow growth Canada's economy is poised for a long period of slow growth, as the mining investment boom simmers down and other parts of the economy such as housing or exports are either over-extended or growing... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Despite impressive gains in equity prices, the recent rebound in gasoline prices and rising interest rates hit consumer confidence in July. The Conference Board measure dropped back modestly to 80.3... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q2/May) Three years after home sales started rising, and a year and a half since house prices turned up, the homeownership rate remains at an 18-year low. 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New Fed Chair unlikely to alter policy outlook much Contrary to the speculation over the past few days, regardless of whether Lawrence Summers, Janet Yellen or a third candidate gets the nod, we suspect that the outlook for US monetary policy would... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market resilient to slowdown in GDP growth Although the recent incoming data have suggested that second-quarter GDP growth could be particularly disappointing, with a sub 1.0% reading possible, we still expect the Fed to begin tapering its... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
