US Economics Update Productivity stagnation bodes ill for potential GDP growth After incorporating the revisions to the historical GDP figures, America's recent productivity performance looks even worse. The stagnation in productivity isn't going to have any major impact on Fed... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul 13.) The increase in housing starts in July was driven by the multi-family sector, with single-family starts posting a small decline. The recovery in multi-family starts has been the driving force behind... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Current account deficit unlikely to re-emerge as threat Despite the recession in Europe and the slowdown in economic growth in China, the US current account deficit has continued to narrow. Our calculations suggest that in the second quarter it hit a 15... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home sales likely to drop back before year end The recent uptick in existing homes sales most likely reflects a rush by home buyers to complete deals before mortgage rates rise further. However, this has only pulled forward sales that would have... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will MBS be tapered first or last and does it matter for housing? Although the Fed may opt for the simplicity of running down purchases of both Treasuries and MBS simultaneously, we think that it makes sense to leave tapering of MBS purchases for last. That said... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The Fed's continuing monthly asset purchases haven't prevented a further slowdown in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, although our measure of the M3 aggregate suggests that broad... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) The continued deceleration in house price inflation across most major cities in July is broadly consistent with the past slowdown in home sales. As demand and supply imbalances continue to intensify... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low wage cost pressures point to muted inflation The latest slowdown in hourly earnings provides further evidence that underlying inflation is likely to remain close to the lower bound of the Bank of Canada's target range of 1% to 3%. This supports... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Homebuilders are having a Wile E. Coyote moment While housing starts have displayed some surprising resilience over the past several months, which would seem to support the consensus view that the housing market is enjoying a soft landing, more... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) July's surprising 39,400 decline in employment looks bad but, since it mainly reflects less hiring of younger workers this summer, the Bank of Canada should view it as a temporary shock that will be... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic demand is building momentum The latest signs that economic growth is gathering momentum are especially encouraging as they imply that a broad-based improvement in domestic demand may be underway. A continuation of the housing... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2) The fall in mortgage delinquencies, fewer foreclosure starts and the lower foreclosure inventory rate in Q2 are all encouraging signs that the fundamentals of the housing market are mending. Although... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Early signs of slowdown in house price appreciation Mortgage applications for home purchase are showing the strain from higher mortgage interest rates, falling by 5.6% m/m in July. It’s too early to see the effect of higher rates on the existing home... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's sluggish export 'led' recovery Canada's export growth slowed to around 2.0% annualised in the second quarter, from just over 6.0% in the first quarter, which would seem to refute hopes of an export-led pick-up in economic growth... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul 13.) Higher mortgage interest rates saw mortgage applications for home purchase post their largest month-on-month fall in almost two years in July. But the most up-to-date weekly figures recorded a small... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) June's 1.5% m/m rebound in export volumes and further contraction in imports are further evidence that the economy lost momentum in the second quarter. This supports our view that the economy grew by... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
