Canada Economics Update Higher commodity prices boosts business confidence Another rise in the CFIB's small business confidence in August suggests that firms continue to expect GDP growth to pick up in the third quarter, from our estimated 1.5% annualised in the second.... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank still pinning hopes on an unlikely export-led recovery The Bank of Canada is unlikely to make any major changes in its upcoming policy announcement next Wednesday (4th September), but the recent surge in Canadian long-term interest rates could prompt the... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q2) Average US house prices rose at double-digit levels once again in the second quarter. But adjusting for normal seasonal patterns, all three of the main Case-Shiller indices suggest that the rate of... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's second-quarter GDP slowdown Canada's economy contracted sharply at the end of the second quarter, but only partly because of one-off factors related to severe floods and a brief labour strike. For the second quarter as a whole... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The much bigger than expected 7.3% m/m decline in July's durable goods orders dampens hopes of a pick-up in the growth rate of business investment in the third quarter. 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) July's subdued inflation figures are consistent with an economy growing below potential, which will only reinforce the Bank of Canada's reluctance to raise rates anytime soon. With growth expected to... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Favourable oil prices could spur business investment The rebound in domestic crude oil prices over the first half of this year has improved the outlook for Canadian business investment. Overall, this suggests some upside risk to GDP outlook of 1.5% in... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's 1.2% m/m decline in retail sales volumes, which only partially reversed the 1.9% m/m gain in the month before, confirms that, over the second quarter as a whole, household consumption growth... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed still on course to begin QE taper in September While it's far from a certainty, the minutes from the FOMC meeting in late July appear to support our view that the Fed will begin to slow its monthly asset purchases at the next meeting in mid... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul. 13) The increase in existing home sales in July suggests that the rise in mortgage rates prompted some buyers to rush through with a home sale before rates became higher still. This stimulatory effect... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is US housing more expensive than everyone thinks? The rapid increase in US house prices over the past year, and the sharp run up in mortgage interest rates over the past few months, have brought issues of housing valuation and affordability into... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Residential investment growth set to slow We expect GDP growth to accelerate over the next few quarters as the Federal fiscal tightening begins to ease although, at the same time, it looks like the economic recovery will receive less support... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Threat from twin deficits begins to recede The incoming news over the past couple of weeks suggests that the so-called twin deficits – the current account and Federal budget – are both improving, in the case of the Federal budget quite... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some exporters could benefit from European recovery Canada's trade with the euro-zone is small, so any sustained European recovery would provide only modest support to Canadian export growth. That said, there are a few industries that might benefit... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) Despite a strong rebound in petroleum refining, June's surprising 1.3% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes, which wasn't related to the floods in Alberta, suggests that second-quarter GDP... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The drop in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 80.0 in August, from 85.1, reversed only part of the sharp gains of the previous three months. Since most... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
