Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar headed even lower before year-end We expect the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar to be followed by another downward leg before year-end. While improving global economic conditions and buoyant commodity prices will help to... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fannie, Freddie and financial repression The proposed winding down of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-owned mortgage finance companies, is normally framed in terms of protecting taxpayers from having to pick up the tab in the... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The surprisingly robust 59,200 rebound in employment in August, following declines over the prior two months, wasn't quite as good as it looks because that gain owed a lot to a surge in part-time jobs... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August's Employment Report is a mixed bag that can be used either to support an immediate tapering of the Fed's monthly asset purchases or to delay that move. Our best guess is that the cumulative... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's second-half showing likely to disappoint Following disruptions to energy output in the second half of last year, Canada's economy rebounded over the first half of this year, posting GDP growth of 2.2% and 1.7% annualised in the first and... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fading fiscal drag to boost GDP growth As the current fiscal tightening fades and the external environment improves, we expect US GDP growth to accelerate from 1.5% this year to 2.5% in 2014 and 3.0%. Despite the recent rise in long-term... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish Although the Bank of Canada retained its tightening bias word for word, it now admits that the continuing weakness in exports and investment mean hopes of a smooth 'rotation in demand' look less... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $39.1bn in July, from $34.5bn in June, is nothing to worry about. For a start, it didn't even fully reverse the unexpected decline in the deficit in June... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) July's discouraging decline in export volumes adds to our concern that Canada is not fully benefitting from the gradually improving US economy. With export competitiveness challenges likely to persist... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug 13.) Higher mortgage interest rates took a further toll on mortgage applications in August. But 30-year rates eased a touch at the end of the month, while applications for home purchase increased. 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) Another rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 28-month high of 55.7 in August, after the surge to 55.4 in July, suggests that the improvement in overseas activity is benefiting US producers. This... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul. 13) The latest CoreLogic house price reading added to the evidence that the pace of price gains is easing slightly. It’s possible that annual price growth will drop into the single- digit range by the end... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Global developments unlikely to influence Fed tapering Recent global and domestic developments are more likely to lead the Fed to taper QE3 by a relatively small amount at September’s policy meeting rather than prompt it to hold fire until October or... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian firms hampered by lack of competitiveness Those hoping that the expected pick-up in US domestic demand growth will drive an export-led recovery in Canada are likely to be disappointed. Over the past decade, Canadian firms have suffered a... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2013) The moderate slowdown in GDP growth to 1.7% annualised in the second quarter, from 2.2% in the first, is encouraging given the impact of the flooding in Alberta and the construction strike in Quebec. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update QRM proposals are a step towards looser mortgage credit The proposed Qualified Residential Mortgage rule is a welcome simplification and relaxation of earlier proposals which, if enacted, will help to loosen mortgage credit conditions. But the inclusion of... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
