Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely Governor Stephen Poloz's speech today indicated that that the Bank of Canada is doubling-down on its earlier bet that the economy is poised for a comeback, led by a rebound in exports and then... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays taper; then fails to offer a clear explanation why The Fed's decision to maintain its asset purchases at $85bn per month was, given that most commentators expected a modest reduction in the pace today, unsurprisingly bond and equity positive. We... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely New Zealand’s economy slowed in Q2, as drought hit agricultural and manufacturing production. However, there were encouraging signs of improvement in other areas of the economy, which bodes well for... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug. 13) The small rise in starts in August, which was below expectations and would have been a fall were it not for downward revisions to earlier data, is not as disappointing as it first appears. The figures... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update America’s daunting long-term debt problem The CBO's latest projections show that America’s long-term debt problem is slightly less daunting than it previously appeared to be. Nevertheless, at some point policymakers will still need to tackle... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul.) The robust rebound in manufacturing sales volumes suggest that GDP likely rebounded by 0.3% m/m in July. That suggests the economy began the third quarter on a solid footing, but the weak end to the... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The slight moderation in the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregates should help to ease fears that the Fed's quantitative easing is putting upward pressure on price inflation. The growth... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's home ownership fling worse than US The third and final wave of data from Statistics Canada's National Household Survey (NHS) published last week reveal that the Canadian home ownership rate surpassed the record peak at the height of... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market still strengthening It should only be a matter of time before the recent fall in the number of people losing their job is followed by a rise in the number of people finding a job. Less firing and more hiring is obviously... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The decline in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to a five-month low of 76.8 in September, from 82.1, reflects the surge in interest rates and the drop in stock markets, although... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The latest pick-up in house price inflation is consistent with the reported rebound in existing home sales. But as mortgage rates continue to rise, we expect falling home sales will eventually result... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Credit Monitor (Jul.) Restrictive mortgage rules and rising fixed mortgage rates suggest that the slowdown in household credit growth is likely to persist. Meanwhile, trends in business sector credit growth suggest that... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Higher mortgage rates denting housing market activity The steady increase in mortgage interest rates is now having a more noticeable effect on housing market activity. Mortgage applications for refinancing have more than halved since rates began rising... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Ahead of the taper The markets are obsessing about whether the Fed will begin to reduce its monthly asset purchases at the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (18th September). All things... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing's support to second-half GDP unlikely to last Housing investment might continue to support GDP growth over the second half of this year, but there are still tentative signs that a day of reckoning lies around the corner, with housing likely to... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Recovery slowing to a more sustainable pace The spike in mortgage interest rates has taken a toll on housing market activity, but we don’t expect it to knock the housing recovery off course. Nevertheless, with the inventory of homes for sale... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
